This page contains a Flash digital edition of a book.
LEARNING FROM THE PAST 89


Table 4.1 Comparing causes of the current crisis with the 1972–74 crisis Factor


Importance in 1972–74 crisis Rising oil prices


Importance in current crisis


The oil crisis was a significant catalyst Although the recent oil price surge through direct and indirect effects on the costs of production (for example, fertilizers) and also on cereals demand.


Demand shocks


Soviet imports accounted for 80 percent Biofuel demand is a similarly sized of the variation in world exports and demand shock in maize. were a major demand shock.


many other currencies, especially bolstering U.S. cereal exports.


was not as sudden as the 1974 surge, rising oil prices again raised production costs and fueled demand


from oil exporters. Biofuels are a new linkage.


U.S. policymakers need to be much more aware of how the effects of


U.S. agriculture, trade, and energy policies affect global food security.


Decline of the U.S. dollar The dollar declined significantly against The dollar again declined heavily against Movements in the U.S. dollar need to many currencies, bolstering U.S.


cereal exports but also triggering the those of the euro region, again revaluation of oil prices by OPEC.


Weather shocks and other output shocks


in Australia (–52 percent), the E.U. (–14 percent), and the United States (–16 percent), as did coarse grains.


be assessed when monitoring food security.


Major shocks included poor harvests in During 2004–06, wheat production fell It is not clear that output shocks were the USSR and poor harvests in India.


a significant direct cause of either crisis; output among major producers


is already adequately monitored. (continued)


Lessons to be learned


Oil price trends need to be carefully assessed when monitoring food security.


Page 1  |  Page 2  |  Page 3  |  Page 4  |  Page 5  |  Page 6  |  Page 7  |  Page 8  |  Page 9  |  Page 10  |  Page 11  |  Page 12  |  Page 13  |  Page 14  |  Page 15  |  Page 16  |  Page 17  |  Page 18  |  Page 19  |  Page 20  |  Page 21  |  Page 22  |  Page 23  |  Page 24  |  Page 25  |  Page 26  |  Page 27  |  Page 28  |  Page 29  |  Page 30  |  Page 31  |  Page 32  |  Page 33  |  Page 34  |  Page 35  |  Page 36  |  Page 37  |  Page 38  |  Page 39  |  Page 40  |  Page 41  |  Page 42  |  Page 43  |  Page 44  |  Page 45  |  Page 46  |  Page 47  |  Page 48  |  Page 49  |  Page 50  |  Page 51  |  Page 52  |  Page 53  |  Page 54  |  Page 55  |  Page 56  |  Page 57  |  Page 58  |  Page 59  |  Page 60  |  Page 61  |  Page 62  |  Page 63  |  Page 64  |  Page 65  |  Page 66  |  Page 67  |  Page 68  |  Page 69  |  Page 70  |  Page 71  |  Page 72  |  Page 73  |  Page 74  |  Page 75  |  Page 76  |  Page 77  |  Page 78  |  Page 79  |  Page 80  |  Page 81  |  Page 82  |  Page 83  |  Page 84  |  Page 85  |  Page 86  |  Page 87  |  Page 88  |  Page 89  |  Page 90  |  Page 91  |  Page 92  |  Page 93  |  Page 94  |  Page 95  |  Page 96  |  Page 97  |  Page 98  |  Page 99  |  Page 100  |  Page 101  |  Page 102  |  Page 103  |  Page 104  |  Page 105  |  Page 106  |  Page 107  |  Page 108  |  Page 109  |  Page 110  |  Page 111  |  Page 112  |  Page 113  |  Page 114  |  Page 115  |  Page 116  |  Page 117  |  Page 118  |  Page 119  |  Page 120  |  Page 121  |  Page 122  |  Page 123  |  Page 124  |  Page 125  |  Page 126  |  Page 127  |  Page 128  |  Page 129  |  Page 130  |  Page 131  |  Page 132  |  Page 133  |  Page 134  |  Page 135  |  Page 136  |  Page 137  |  Page 138  |  Page 139  |  Page 140  |  Page 141  |  Page 142