LESSONS FOR THE FUTURE 101
Figuring out how to rapidly scale up public investment—or crowd in private investment—in this institutional vacuum is going to be a key policy challenge in the years to come. It is perhaps understandable that many developing countries have opted for the quick fix of subsidizing fertilizers, but there are understandable doubts about how financially sustainable these programs are (Poulton, Kydd, and Dorward 2006; Dorward et al. 2009) and what the implicit costs are of neglecting other R&D and infrastructure. Indeed, those with a longer perspective recall that the 1972–74 crisis produced some extremely costly subsidy programs that are politically difficult to dismantle. Scaling up agricultural development projects in an efficient and sustainable way is the critical policy challenge in the years to come.
Concluding Remarks
With the benefit of hindsight, the causes of the current food crisis are increas- ingly clear, even if there are still some doubts about the precise magnitude of each factor and certain misperceptions still persist in the public arena. It is also clear that many poor countries have been hard hit by the sharp rise in food prices over recent years. Taking action to limit the vulnerability of poor populations to increasing food prices is essential in the short run, but it is also vital in the longer run. After all, millions of poor people face their own food crises on year-to-year, season-to-season, and day-to-day bases. Their prob- lems are enduring and indicative of deeper deficiencies in both national and international food systems that are hardly new. Reflecting on these issues in the wake of the 1972–74 crisis, Gale Johnson wrote:
The primary reason we have failed to achieve the degree of interna- tional food security that is now possible is not nature but man. And the aspect of man that is responsible for our failure is not man as a farmer or scientist or extension worker or grain marketer or food retailer but man as a politician. (1981, 257)
These remarks are just as pertinent today as they were three decades ago. Given the right incentives and the right opportunities, farmers, traders, scien- tists, and others can engage in activities that improve both their own welfare and also lift millions of others permanently out of poverty and hunger. Yet the catalyst for these activities will be farsighted and deeply committed policy actions that address the most fundamental problems facing both international and national food systems.
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