2009 & 2010: The coming global r
Title
ecovery
Walt Custer and Jon Custer-Topai
2009 & 2010:
The coming global recovery
Global electronic business conditions (Chart 4). This was the first world personal According to Henderson Ventures elec-
began strong in 2008 but then ‘crashed computer quarterly decline since 2002. tronic equipment is production is expected
and burned’ late in the year. Per Chart 1, Computer motherboard sales ‘overreacted’ to ‘bottom’ in 2009 with ‘recovery’ in
2008 world GDP rose 2% vs. 2007, elec- by dropping 11% in total 2008 and 18% in 2010 (Chart 10). Printed circuit board sales
tronic equipment revenues ‘broke even,’ this same fourth quarter (Chart 5). (Chart 11) are predicted to dip 13% to US
printed circuit board sales dropped 6%, Weaker end-market demand was cou- $42.3 billion this year before rebounding
semiconductor $ shipments declined 2% pled with concerns about excess electronic 6% in 2010.
and SEMI equipment plunged 28%. component inventories. Semiconductor Charts 12 and 13 provide recent fore-
By the end of 2008 industrial produc- shipments plunged in November and De- casts for electronic ‘food chain’ growth for
tion growth had stalled worldwide (Chart 2) cember, most noticeably in SE Asia (Chart 2009 and 2010.
and electronic equipment production 3/12 6). The composite 4Q’08 “guidance of a 2009 will be a difficult year. However
growth (Chart 3) was broadly negative—with group of the largest semiconductor produc- the ‘light at the end of the tunnel’ should
the downturn most dramatic in Japan and ers” predicted a 20% decline in 4Q’08 vs. become visible by late summer.
SE Asia. High volume end markets were hit 4Q’07 global chip revenues (Chart 7).
the hardest. As available credit tightened Taiwan-listed ODMs (original design eMs, oDM & related assembly
and consumer and business confidence manufacturers) mirrored the industry activity
and disposable income shrank, so did decline pattern, growing 7% for total 2008 Market Estimates:
the demand for consumer and industrial but dropping 6% in 4Q’08 (Chart 8). • EMS/ODM industry 2009 revenues
electronics. Printed circuit board demand likewise are estimated to be flat or up less than
In the 4th quarter of 2008, a slowdown dropped sharply in late 2008, especially in 1%.—Charlie Barnhart & Associates
in personal computer sales was just one SE Asia. Custer Consulting Group’s world • Worldwide EMS/ODM industry sales
reflection of reduced consumer and busi- PCB shipment model (Chart 9) shows that grew 9.3% in 2008 to $291 billion and
ness spending. IDC reported that world the normal autumn peak was muted and are expected to grow by just 7.8% in
PC shipments shrank 0.4% and USA ship- the post-holiday seasonal decline was ampli- 2009.—IDC
ments dropped 3.5% in 4Q’08 vs. 4Q’07 fied in 2008.
20090118
20090117
Global "Electronic Foodchain" Outlook
Industrial Production - World
2008 vs 2007
% Change vs. One Year Earlier
Combined GDP
HV 2
Electronic Equipment
HV 0
Rigid & Flex PCBs
HV -6
Semiconductors
HV -2
Semi Capital Equipment
-28 SEMI
-30 -20 -10 0
www.hendersonventures.com
% Change
www.semi.org
Economist 1/2009
http://www.economist.com
Chart 1. Chart 2.
32 – Global SMT & Packaging – February 2009
www.globalsmt.net
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