p18 Columnist sept 11 8/9/09 14:45 Page 18
news comment
ttglive.com
Derek Jones Kuoni
“Everything’s changed – and
only those businesses that
recognise the differences
will share in the recovery”
A
s the autumnal clouds gathered and A year on and, unbelievably, all the talk is of
the tops of the trees began to bend planning for recovery. House prices have sta-
in the wind, my other half, Natalie, bilised and consumer confidence is improving.
delivered another unique insight. Retailers are reporting year-on-year sales
“It’s back-to-school weather,” she said. growth and the banks are once again dishing
Despite not having gone back to school for out bonuses. We can all breathe a sigh of relief.
the past 30 years, there’s still something about But it’s worth remembering that recoveries
the changing weather and the shorter days that don’t always put you back where you started.
triggers an association with the new school The world of sport is littered with comebacks
year. I suddenly have an irresistible urge to buy that didn’t quite live up to former glory (think
a new compass set from WH Smith and to back Lance Armstrong), not to mention the world of
my books with woodchip wallpaper. entertainment (think, erm, the Spice Girls).
For the travel industry, it’s not New Year Your customers have changed. Last month
when we reflect on the year just gone – it’s consumer debt in the UK shrank by £650 million.
the start of the school year. We say After years of living on credit, we’re now paying
goodbye to the kids at the school the bill. Over the next 12 months, millions of
gate, breathe a sigh of relief, then rock-bottom, variable-rate mortgages are going
head straight to the office to digest to come to an end and your customers will find
the numbers and review the themselves paying nearly 5% interest on the
margins. Summer’s gone; it’s time best fixed-rate deals.
to take stock and plan another This will not be a recovery back to where
year. Groundhog day. we were. This will be a recovery to a different
But this time round, it all place: a place where your customers will think
feels a bit different. When much harder about how much and how
Millie, aged 6, started big often they spend; where they will save
school last September, the before they spend; where, above all, they
financial world was in turmoil. will demand value for money. This is the
Within a week of her starting, new reality. Nothing’s changed, but
Lehman Brothers had gone everything’s changed – and only those
bust and, before the end of businesses that recognise the subtle
her first term, UK property differences will share in the recovery.
prices had tumbled by 15%. Meanwhile, it’s back-to-school
In fairness to Millie, none of weather, Millie has a new pencil sharp-
this was her fault; in fact she ener and the big girl is now her best friend.
was far more worried about the big girl in Class
3 who stole her pencil sharpener. Derek Jones, distribution director, Kuoni
18 11.09.2009
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