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ttglive.com
Comment Chris Photi, White Hart Associates
“Peter Long might
not be thinking ‘Oh
God what next?’,
but the rest of the
industry outside of
the ‘golden two’ is”
I want to believe that Long is right but
evidence suggests that in the “real world”,
2009 remains a difficult and uncertain year
for the industry, with 2010 potentially worse
unless, and there is no indication of this yet,
the pound rallies substantially.
In the long term, though, there is little doubt
that the big two will strengthen and grow due
to the massive advantages that scale gives
them over the rest of the marketplace.
The ability to hedge fuel and currency, switch-
sell destination, manage and, if necessary,
cut their cost base (synergies alone in the
consolidations were and continue to be huge),
and the massive anti-competitive advantages
the current regulatory framework has unfairly
given them, all amounts to a healthy outlook –
for them.
Long might not be thinking “Oh God what
Recession on way
next?”, but assuredly the rest of the industry
outside of the “golden two” is.
One thing I wholeheartedly agree with,
though, is the assertion that a rise in the APC
levy from £1 is “unacceptable”.
It is, however, regrettably inevitable. The
out? I think not
numbers don’t add up, and the levy will
increase.
I cannot wait for the likely confrontation
between the big two and the CAA over the
increase.
The pound is weak, house prices are stagnating, and agents
Why should the big two “fund the rest of the
industry”? Because they make up most of it
report that sales are 20% down. Chris Photi disagrees with
with well over 50% of all Atol sales.
Tui’s Peter Long that we are emerging from the recession And lest we should forget, MyTravel taught
us there is no such thing as a “no risk” travel
T
he government tells us we are continues to be a huge factor in talking company.
unlikely to clamber out of recession ourselves into and out of a problem, I don’t buy into the big boys’ constant mantra
until well into 2010. The evidence of nevertheless Peter Long’s current blind “we only fund it for
my eyes in my local high street, where optimism appears to have little foundation. everyone else”.
every other shop appears to be either empty or Where does the Tui Travel boss see house The fund needs to be
closing down, tells me that recession is with us price rises? Trust me, house prices still have a targeting a £250m-plus
and depression lurks. Bookings within the way to fall before they bottom out. failure to cater for their
travel industry are down by almost 20% and Maybe it is true that those who still have size. They should pay
companies from my client base are still cutting their jobs have 20% more disposable income the same as everyone
and slashing costs to make ends meet. but, given the current economic outlook, are else – full stop.
And yet the boss of our largest travel company they spending it?
declared in last week’s TTG that “We’re coming The booking statistics suggest not. Will they ■ You can read last week’s
through the recession”. spend it? That is the big question. When they do Peter Long interview
While I agree that media perception was and then we truly will be coming out of recession. at ttglive.com/long
14 17.04.2009
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