CONTINUED FROM BACK COVER
about a new recession in the eurozone. “Consumer confidence has not really
improved for the last six months,” she said. “Growth in consumption is a lot slower than it was in the credit boom of the noughties. “Consumption is not going wild. We
have got steady growth in consumption. What we always see in a recession is more people saving money. “The household saving ratio is now
starting to fall a little bit; I think that’s because consumers feel much more confident about spending.” However, Cooper said the Bank of England base interest rate – currently at the historically low level of 0.5% – was too low, based on unrealistic expectations of inflation being kept under control. She said key factors such as GDP
growth, inflation and unemployment were now comparable to the average between 1997 and 2008, after the previous recession when the rate was 5%. Cooper said a warning sign ought to come with any economic forecasts that take data from a complex array of sources and use mathematical formula to give an “illusion of accuracy”. And she scoffed at official predictions
from bodies such as the Bank of England, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the International Monetary Fund. Delegates, said Cooper, would be
better off consulting the astrologer Russell Grant about the future because the quality of economic data was so poor. The accuracy of ONS wage data, which has led to claims that the recovery was not being felt in consumers’ pockets, was particularly questionable, she said. “Anecdotally, there is a lot of evidence
that wages are going up a lot more than official data suggests. I think the numbers are not picking up the true picture.” With unemployment continuing to fall
and now at about 6% – hitting that mark three years ahead of a Bank of England prediction in August 2013 – upward pressure on wages was inevitable. “When unemployment gets to 6%,
pure supply and demand indicates employers will need to pay more for labour,” Cooper said.
KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST NEWS AND ANALYSIS ABOUT THE BUSINESS OF TRAVEL BY LOGGING ON TO
TRAVELWEEKLY.CO.UK
78 •
travelweekly.co.uk — 27 November 2014
travelweeklybusiness
THOMAS COOK EXPECTED TO POST 54% PRE-TAX PROFITS INCREASE OF £168M
Phil Davies
The transformation at Thomas Cook was due to hit another milestone as Travel Weekly went to press, with the travel giant expected to report an increase in profits for the year to September 30 on Wednesday. Weekend reports predicted the group
would post an operating profit of £323 million for the period, a rise of 23% on a year earlier and in line with expectations following its most recent trading statement in September. Pre-tax profits were expected to have risen 54% to £168 million. The figures were expected to come
despite a backdrop of difficult European markets after bookings in Germany moderated from their previously strong level. Cook’s German operation is also experiencing weaker margins due to reduced demand, excess market capacity and geopolitical events in Ukraine. Its UK summer capacity was 92% sold,
with average selling prices down 4%, mainly due to a change in product mix and greater level of market capacity. Overall, Cook was expected to post a
ninth consecutive quarter of increased profitability for the July-September quarter. Cook, led by chief executive Harriet Green, is halfway through a long-term plan to drive savings and return the group to bottom-line
Harriet Green
profit after its near collapse in 2011. It had significantly reduced net debt from £788 million at the end of 2012 to between £300 million and £350 million by the end of this financial year. The company has already cut costs by
more than the £360 million it targeted this year and was expected to use the full-year results to outline new savings plans. Brokers at Morgan Stanley forecast
Cook would have saved £380 million this year, and that the operator would unveil a £480 million target for 2015. Panmure Gordon analyst Karl Burns told
The Express: “We believe there remains the potential to see a debt refinancing given Thomas Cook’s inefficient balance-sheet structure.”
FRENCH BUSINESS CARRIER ‘SEEKING SLOTS AT GATWICK’
A French airline running all-business-class transatlantic flights is rumoured to be seeking rights to fly from Gatwick. The Sunday Times reported La
Compagnie is seeking runway slots, citing a source at the airport. The carrier started all-business-class flights
from Paris Charles de Gaulle to Newark in July, operating a single Boeing 757-200 six times a week. Fares start at about $1,800 return, undercutting established premium services by more than half. Deputy chief executive Peter Luethi told USA Today: “The proposition we have now
is not to be the best business class, but the best in price point.” Previous attempts to run all-business-class services between the UK and US resulted in the failures of Silverjet, Eos and Maxjet.
Gatwick
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46 |
Page 47 |
Page 48 |
Page 49 |
Page 50 |
Page 51 |
Page 52 |
Page 53 |
Page 54 |
Page 55 |
Page 56 |
Page 57 |
Page 58 |
Page 59 |
Page 60 |
Page 61 |
Page 62 |
Page 63 |
Page 64 |
Page 65 |
Page 66 |
Page 67 |
Page 68 |
Page 69 |
Page 70 |
Page 71 |
Page 72 |
Page 73 |
Page 74 |
Page 75 |
Page 76 |
Page 77 |
Page 78 |
Page 79 |
Page 80 |
Page 81 |
Page 82 |
Page 83 |
Page 84