NEWS I ROUNDUP Lux Research tips 65.6GW globally by 2019
LED BY CHINA, the solar industry will grow at a CAGR of 8.3%, from 37.5 GWp in 2013 to 65.6 GWp in 2019, but emerging trade disputes it, as much as global policies, cast a shadow over short-term prospects, according to Lux Research.
China became the biggest solar market in the world with 11.8 GWp installations in 2013, and has been key to faster-than- expected global recovery. Since the competitive bankruptcy-ridden cost environment of 2012, module supplier margins have increased, with most Tier-1 suppliers topping 10% toward the end of 2013 and 15% in the first quarter of 2014.
“With solar now fairly common in most parts of the world, it reaps the rewards of direct incentives but also faces uncertainty due to pressure on trade activity with China,” said Matthew Feinstein, Lux Research Senior Analyst and the lead author of the report titled, “Solar Market Size Update 2014: Reform for the Long Haul.”
“Furthermore, as an increasingly commonplace electricity source, most major markets are dealing with some combination of these dynamics, complicating the status of policy globally,” he added. Lux Research analysts
evaluated the growth trajectory of the solar industry, besides weighing policy and other challenges.
Growth is fastest in the Americas. At a CAGR of 16.3%, the Americas will be the fastest-growing region in the world as its new installations market nearly triples from 5.3 GWp in 2013 to 15.4 GWp in 2019. The U.S. will pace the rest of the Americas, growing from 4.7 GWp to 11.7 GWp but South America will grow 10-fold to 2.5 GWp in 2019. The Asia- Pacific region will grow at a lower 8.2% CAGR but will account for over 50% of
global demand, led by China, Japan and other emerging markets. Cost cuts will be sustained. With cost cuts critical to the sustained growth of the industry, incremental increases in efficiency are on course from technologies such as passivated emitter rear contact (PERC), heterojunction with intrinsic layer (HIT) and selective emitter (SE). System costs will drop by between $0.36/ Wp for utility-scale and $0.60/Wp for residential by 2019. This will translate to a 20% cut in system costs.
X-Si remains technology of choice. Crystalline silicon (x-Si) will dominate the solar market through 2019 even though other module technologies such as copper iridium gallium diselenide (CIGS), copper zinc tinc sulfide (CZTS), cadmium telluride (CdTe) and thin, flexible, epitaxial silicon (epi-Si) have the potential to become major threats in the future. X-Si, with an 84.6% market share, will grow from 31.6 GWp in 2013 to 55.7 GWp in 2019, growing at a CAGR of 8.45%. CdTe and CIGS will be a distant second – growing to 4.8 GWp and 4.2 GWp, respectively, in 2019.
The report, titled “Solar Market Size Update 2014: Reform for the Long Haul,” is part of the Lux Research Solar Intelligence service.
EIA says solar energy doubled in the US in 1H 2014
ACCORDING TO the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)’s latest “Electric Power Monthly” report, with data for the first six months of 2014, renewable energy sources (i.e., biomass, geothermal, hydropower, solar, wind) provided 14.3% of net U.S. electrical generation. Conventional hydropower accounted for 7.0% while non-hydro renewables provided an even larger share of 7.3%.
Overall, electrical generation from non-hydro renewable energy sources (i.e., biomass, geothermal, solar, wind)
expanded by 10.4% compared to the first half of 2013.
Solar-generated electricity more than doubled (growing by 115.7%) and wind power increased by 9.0% compared to last year. Biomass also grew by 4.0%. However, geothermal power dipped by 1.5% and conventional hydropower declined by 4.2%.
Even with the lower output from hydropower and geothermal, net U.S. electrical generation from all renewable sources combined grew by 2.73%.
By comparison, net electrical generation from all energy sources - renewables, fossil fuels and nuclear power - grew by 2.59%.
“Not long ago, EIA was forecasting that renewables would not reach 14% of U.S. electrical generation until the year 2040,” noted Ken Bossong, Executive Director of the SUN DAY Campaign. “And even the current 14.3% figure undoubtedly understates the real contribution from renewables inasmuch as EIA’s data does not fully reflect distributed and off-grid generation.”
Issue IV 2014 I
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