INDUSTRY I ANALYSIS
THE CRISIS OF THE PHOTOVOLTAIC INDUSTRY is drawing to a close. While it is true demand for solar modules is dropping in Europe, demand in many other regions is rising rapidly. Even the producers of thin-layer modules which we had been almost “written off” are investing in new factories again. This is good news for the producers of solar glass and production equipment.
The solar industry has changed. As little as five years ago the manufacturers of solar modules were still announcing huge Gigawatt factories while research institutes were outdoing each other with ever new efficiency records. Thanks to abundant subsidies in many European states the total installed PV in Europe quadrupled to 70 GWh between 2008 and 2011. This huge demand made the sector brim with self-confidence.
Changing landscape Today, scarce evidence of this boom can be seen anymore. Many countries with feed-in tariffs for solar power have drastically curtailed subsidy tariffs due to the rapidly rising green energy subsidy costs involved. As a result, the build-up in Europe dropped by almost 40% last year. Subsequently, nearly half the European cell and module manufacturers disappeared from the market and production equipment suppliers started posting losses while solar glass producers and processors lost an important source of income.
However, those keeping their heads above water can now finally hope for better days. This holds particularly true for companies that are already multi-national players. “While Germany runs the risk of a further shrinking market, other countries are increasingly relying on the power of sunlight to make their energy supply safer and more eco-friendly,” says Carsten Körnig, General Manager of the German Solar Industry Association (Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft).
And statistics support Körnig’s view. In Japan and China demand for modules tripled last year and even in the USA it was up by 40%. China has announced it once again plans to considerably increase its targets for solar power build-up – by 2017 the total solar power output installed in the country is to more than triple. On a global scale demand for modules is expected to rise by at least 20% in 2014.
At the same time, China continues to expand its market leadership in module production. According to a study by consulting firm Global Data, modules with a total of 40 Gigawatt will be manufactured in the Asia-Pacific region this year and of these 30 Gigawatt will be produced in China alone. As Global Data Analyst Ankit Methur explains, this means Asia now accounts for 90% of global production.
Thin-layer in rows: solar project developer Belectric has built Europe‘s biggest photovoltaics power plant in Eastern Europe using cadmium-telluride modules by First Solar. Photo: BELECTRIC Solarkraftwerke GmbH
Growing opportunities
This development should play into the hands of solar suppliers. Many of them owe their economic success to the Chinese solar groups ordering equipment worth many billions of Euros for their huge factories in the boom years 2009 to 2011. Back then the export of cell and module manufacturing lines for the Far East accounted for some 80% of sales posted, for firms like Centrotherm and the Schmid Group. As the new capex cycle starts in Asia these companies could see a silver lining on the horizon.
At Centrotherm there are already clear indications of an upswing. After the company was forced to file for insolvency due to poor order levels at the end of 2012, it is now hoping to return into the black again in the current year thanks to new orders from China and Taiwan. Florian Wessendorf, Managing Director of the Association Photovoltaic Production Equipment in the German Engineering Association VDMA, sees a similar development for the other suppliers. “The outlook has clearly improved.” The expert thinks that German firms have clear advantages when it comes to automation and coating technologies. “In these high- tech areas plants made in Germany will also be highly sought after in future.”
In the long term, photovoltaics could also become attractive again for the glass industry, says Timo Feuerbach, speaker at the “Forum Glastechnik” and adds: “At present the situation in the
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