The LCD industry looks poised for recovery as revenue forecast tops $85 billion for 2012, writes Steve Montgomery
DESPITE A gloomy global economy and concerns over the decline in sales of consumer LCD products, TFT (thin-film transistor) LCD panel suppliers are still expecting 2012 shipments to grow 8% to 757 million units and revenue to increase 13% to $85.3 billion. Market analysis included in the latest NPD DisplaySearch Quarterly Large-Area TFT Panel Shipment Reportindicates that the growth will be triggered by strong demand for mobile PC and LCD TV panels. “The growth in shipments
and revenue this year shows that the TFT LCD industry is recovering from price declines and supply chain inventory adjustments, although the recovery looks very modest,” says David Hsieh, vice president, Greater China market for NPD DisplaySearch. “Panel makers are quickly adapting to the shifts in demand and developing new technologies, features and sizes. Chinese LCD makers are rapidly increasing production, and Korean, Japanese and Taiwanese manufacturers are restructuring and deploying new technologies and processes to improve costs and display performance. It is clear that the TFT LCD industry has not yet reached maturity but is simply entering a new chapter.”
PANEL SHIPMENTS 2011 was the first year that shipments of LCD TV panels declined, and panel makers are hoping for a turnaround this year. For 2012, they targeted 6% growth, expecting stronger demand in China, triggered by
replacements, new models and the country’s energy subsidy programme. LCD TV panel prices rebounded in the second quarter of 2012 and prices of some sizes are still rising due to the tight supply in the third quarter. New TV panel sizes such as 28in, 29in, 39in, 50in, 58in, 60in, and 65in are also playing a key role in shipment growth. LCD TV panel revenue growth is helping to improve overall large-area LCD panel revenues in 2012. LED backlight penetration
reached 59.2% of LCD TV panel shipments in Q1 2012. According to the plans of panel makers, this figure will reach 60% in second quarter 2012 and 70% in Q4 2012. These targets account for scenarios in which panel makers ship the cell and open cell only and downstream manufacturing companies assemble the backlight unit together with the module. Many panel makers and LCD TV set makers have developed a lower-cost, direct-type LED backlight, targeted at the market segment that prioritises panel cost over thickness. NPD DisplaySearch estimates that direct-type LED backlit panels will grow to 17% of all LCD TV panel shipments in the fourth quarter of 2012. Mobile PC and tablet panel shipments are growing, with 10.6in panels, used in Microsoft’s Surface tablet, likely to exhibit a strong increase towards the second half of 2012. Total shipments of tablet PC panels are expected to rise 61% above the 2011 figure.