The Forest Fibre Industry - 2050 Roadmap Executive Summary
The document [the European Commission publication “Roadmap for moving to a competitive low-carbon economy in 2050”] models pathways towards 2050 and the possible contribution of different sectors. It will be followed by an ‘energy roadmap’ and will be combined with other roadmaps on, for example, the future of transport. In time, it will lead to a new “climate change and energy package”.
The outcome will be crucial for Europe’s Pulp, Paper and Wood Products Industries, which operate at the crossroads of renewable energy policy, emission trading, industrial and raw material policies. Climate change policy, too, has a major influence on the future of these sectors. After all, climate change policy is, essentially, industrial policy.
This roadmap attempts to lay out the future of the Forest Fibre Industry – the Pulp, Paper and Board and Wood Products Sectors combined – and its potential to meet future consumer demands, stay competitive and deliver a CO2
emission
reduction in line with the modelled overall industrial reduction of 80% by 2050, compared to 1990 levels. The roadmap explores the technical, financial and resource constraints that lie ahead, and the policy framework that will be needed to tackle them.
Our roadmap is an exploration into the future. The CO2 reduction envisaged can only be achieved when the right
policy framework is in place. The sector can play its part as long as it remains profitable and attractive to investments, keeps access to fibre and other raw materials and receives enough support to bring breakthrough technologies within reach.
This roadmap depends on global action
The roadmap is based on the European Commission’s ‘global action scenario with available technologies’. It depends on the conditions of that scenario being met, including the expected decarbonisation of electricity, carbon neutrality of biomass, availability of carbon capture and storage, and realisation of energy efficiency targets. As the Commission roadmap has shown, the cost of Europe going alone on emission reductions will be too high for industry and governments to bear.
The sector has the potential to succeed
The sector has the ambition to be at the heart of the 2050 bio-economy, an essential platform for a range of bio-based products and the recycling society. We expect the sector, in its broad definition, to continue to grow in line with EU GDP, by about 1.5% a year for the next 40 years. The future sector will be a cluster of more and more integrated activities and sectors. New business models, products and services will complement the future use of printing and writing papers and the growing need for packaging and hygiene solutions.
Carbon reduction can only be achieved with a technology push
The exploration shows that a reduction of 50 to 60 percent CO2
by 2050 is possible given the right circumstances, based on investment patterns and available and emerging technologies. To achieve an 80% CO2
reduction, however,
it will need breakthrough technologies. These have to be developed and available by 2030.
Substitution adds a dimension
The Forest Fibre Industry has a much broader carbon profile than simply one of direct and indirect emitter. Its products can substitute for carbon-intensive fossil fuel-based products, whether for construction, fuel, chemicals, packaging or other purposes. And it works within Europe’s forests, which, when sustainably managed, store carbon.
The consumer will decide
Future sectors will provide future products to 2050 consumers. Their choices will determine the success of the bio-economy and the industrial sectors that provide solutions. This roadmap starts with the 2050 consumer. This individual holds the answer for policymakers and the sector alike.
2050 is both far away and around the corner
Although the 2050 future is far away and today’s economy changes on an almost daily basis, the time to act is short. The 40 years ahead comprise only two investment cycles for a capital intensive industry; in other words, “2050 is two paper machines away”. Policymakers and industry have few opportunities to make crucial choices.
Start of a debate on the future policy framework
This roadmap is the start of a debate. It aims to contribute to the discussion on the future policies of the European Commission and member states. It is not an action plan. Uncertainties in modelling the economy are too great to simply translate a 2050 modelled future into an action plan. It is however a holistic exploration into the future of our sector.
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Paper - the sustainable, renewable choice
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