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ON THE PVF PULSE
Professor Economides hits an energy home run at PVF Roundtable
A
t a record-attended meeting of the Houston-based PVF Roundtable — at which I
was privileged to receive the award of Director Emeritus in February — the odds-on nation’s leading energy expert, University of Houston Profes- sor Michael J. Economides, pre- sented a lengthy but highly impressive state of the global energy sector, past, present and future. A major point that he has fre-
quently reiterated — and one I com- pletely agree with — is that 87% of all energy usage now and in the fu- ture will be oil, natural gas and coal. And, according to Economides, the U.S.’s attraction to alternative ener- gies is marginal at best. The future for nuclear, which has dominated the power sourcing in France especially, could be at risk in the U.S., due to the 1979 Three Mile Island, the Ukraine’s 1986 Chernobyl disasters, and the current situation in Japan. There seems to also be no agreement as to where to store the radioactive residual. Economides is on a tear against America’s Environmental Protection Agency, which has shown to be adamantly against the excavation of oil, whether deep sea or land-based. The EPA also been often ridiculed by China, which seems totally con- founded by the disjointed direction this country is taking in energy devel- opment. While China and India integrate a
• Economides a U. of Houston professor
• 87% of all energy usage will be oil, natural gas and coal
• China investing in oil-sand ventures
• Fossil fuels will remain fuel for 21st century
• Canadian tar sands hold massive reserves
• Oil pricing structure confusing at best
• Copper prices on upward spiral courtesy of China growth frenzy
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population the size of America’s peo- ple total (over 300 million) into their consumer sector this year, their 2050 outlook has led them to buy up prac- tically all the coal produced by such leading American bituminous coal producers as Patriot Coal, Arch Coal and Peabody Energy. China is also ag- gressively investing in Canada’s oil- sands developers, as well as available production facilities in the Mideast, West Africa and South America. Economides is seriously opposed
to ethanol, which he believes is a scam perpetuated by the agri-busi- ness interests, and heavily subsidized by the U.S. Government. With 40% of the nation’s corn crop indentured to ethanol, global prices have shot up
able energy. He claims that most re- sponsible energy experts believe that until the end of the 21st century, coal, oil and natural gas will still comprise the overwhelming use of energy. With the revolutionary method of
“shale fracking” now operational, he believes that the world will be awash in that fossil fuel. Economides ex- pects natural gas prices to rise mod- erately higher, but nowhere near that of oil, comparatively speaking. He expects prices to reach $150 per bar- rel next year and stay above that level during the latter part of this decade.
Canada’s newly estimated 2 trillion oil
reserve barrels could prove U.S. lifeline A recent 60 Minutes TV documen-
A major point that he has frequently reiterated — and one I completely agree with — is that 87% of all energy usage now and
in the future will be oil, natural gas and coal.
to new highs. He is very critical of President
Obama’s 2035 commitment that 80% of all power generation and trans- portation will be generated by renew-
tary dwelt on Canada’s increasingly productive oil sands potential in the Athabasca region of Canada’s Al- berta Province. Although previously estimated to
BY MORRIS BESCHLOSS PVF and economic analyst emeritus
contain tar sand reserves, with a po- tential second only to Saudi Arabia’s 230 billion barrels, and ahead of Iran and Iraq in second and third place, re- spectively, new revelations call for a far greater potential than previously anticipated. Surprisingly, several of the partici-
pants in the documentary, including executives from major players in the oil sands business such as Syncrude and Suncor, were extremely bullish. They opined that the ultimate re- serves obtainable, utilizing current technology, and prices per barrel des- tined to top $100 this year, retain an ultimate potential exceeding 2 trillion barrels, which is 8 times that of the estimated oil reserves of Saudi Arabia. Although the tar sands fields were discovered more than 25 years ago, they only become commercially vi- able when the price of oil topped $50 per barrel in the middle of the previous decade. The complicated separation of the oil gunk from the sand in which they were embedded reached a previous peak in 2008,
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