THE WHOLESALER® — JANUARY 2011•


2011 Forecast — PVF


pends on the latent hostility that the current Administration harbors against this method of oil recovery. It’s doubtful that the U.S. will return


to six million barrels a day domesti- cally under present circumstances. However, a substantial decrease in highway car and truck traffic will put less demand pressure on U.S. domes- tic oil storage facilities. With the Canadian oil sands in-


dustry continuing to expand, U.S. companies are being called upon to provide product and expertise, even though an increasing volume of the converted oil product is headed for China, which has invested in rail lines and a port in British Columbia. A U.S. pipeline to deliver product to Oklahoma and Texas-based refiner- ies is still under dispute, due to the need for Environmental Protection Agency clearance. • Ethanol. This has proved to be a


boon to the agricultural sector, as well as to PVF manufacturers who have helped to develop excess facili- ties in manifesting the conversion process from corn to the gasoline


and a repair, maintenance and inventory rebuilding of 2010, would call for a growth in the low double digits, with the end-use needs of even a slowly-expanding economy going forward impressively.


blend. An overblown agricultural subsidy, together with an extra 45 cents a gallon of ethanol federal spiff has made this controversial blend a major factor in adding to otherwise near bankrupt ethanol converters. Massive shipments overseas have kept demand for this questionable gasoline supplement at an increas- ingly high level, thanks to U.S. tax- payer support. Despite the major investment by


oil billionaire T. Boone Pickens, nat- ural gas usage for trucks and buses is limited to government and institu- tional vehicles. Without a centralized infrastructure available for replenish- ment and support, this would not seem practical for America’s huge driving distances. Electric cars, such as the Chevrolet Volt are in the em- bryonic stage, but limited due to America’s vast distances and the fre- quency of necessary recharging. • Renewable energy. Of the three


major renewable energy innovations — solar, wind and geothermal — only solar seems to have caught on


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Even a moderate comeback from a depressed 2009,


big time. The most successful break- through is now occurring in Arizona, Southern California and other poten- tial areas of development, with an ex- cess of annual sunshine. A $6-billion complex of solar panel manufacturers is now in the process of implementation, in the Greater Palm Springs area, supported by heavy fed- eral subsidies. However, even in Southern California's Coachella Val- ley, the successful development of these renewables is only expected to


comprise less than 5% of all powering resources utilized by the middle of the 21st century. • Industrial and Commercial Construction. The traditional main- stay of mechanical contracting will add little to overall PVF sector growth in 2011-12. With occupancy still well below par in most of the country, only healthcare, religious and educational institutions will pro- vide substantial demand for PVF-ori- ented new projects. However, repair


•23


and maintenance will prove to be well above average, especially in the manufacturing sector. Most compa- nies are upgrading, mechanizing and automating on the shop floor, in order to obviate the need for additional em- ployment in an uncertain regulatory and healthcare environment. This should provide sizable stimulus for PVF manufacturers. The expertise of mechanical contractors has been widely recognized by the upstream (Turn to 2011 looking... page 24.)


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