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EZ RE NFL WEEK 15
KLMNO 6
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 19, 2010
THE LEAGUE: The Post’s blog is your place for all things NFL during the season.
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Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
1 p.m.,WUSA-9, Colts by 5
Jacksonville comes into this game with six straight wins and can clinch its first AFC South title with a win. The Jags won two division titles before joining the South in 2002. RB Maurice Jones-Drewhas averaged 5.4 yards per carry on 165 rushes against Indy and has 12 career TDs against the Colts.
SMARTER STATS: Sack totals are often misrepresentations of actual line performance. There are times when a quarterback will force a line to protect too long, and other times when a signal-caller will help his line with precise reads and a quick
release.No surprise that Peyton Manning is one of the latter. The Colts rank first in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Sack Rate metric.
USERS PICKING THE COLTS 78% GAMESNOTONTELEVISION
Cleveland at Cincinnati 1 p.m., Bengals by 1
MATCHUP
The Browns allowed 30 points seven times last season. They and the Packers are the only teams in the NFL that haven’t given up 30 this season. The Bengals’ Terrell Owens needs 66 yards to become the second player in league history to reach 16,000 in his career. San Francisco’s Jerry Rice had 22,895.
Houston at Tennessee 1 p.m. Titans by 11/2
Matt Schaub (13,536) passed David Carr (13,391) for most career yards passing in Texans history. Schaub had single-game team record 62 pass attempts against Baltimore last week. Titans RB Chris Johnson is averaging 8.5 yards per carry against Texans at home. He had a career-low five yards on seven carries in his last game vs. Houston.
Kansas City at St. Louis 1 p.m., Rams by 3
The Chiefs have been intercepted four times, the lowest total in the NFL; they are tied with the Patriots with just nine turnovers overall. The Chiefs lead the NFL with a 165.4-yard rushing average. Jamaal Charles averages 6.1 yards per carry and has 1,177 yards. The Rams have forced 22 turnovers, two more than their 2009 season total.
Buffalo at Miami 1 p.m., Dolphins by 51/2
Miami has scored 10 points or less in four of past six games. Buffalo has scored 20 points or more only once in past seven games. Dolphins are last in the AFC in scoring, and last in the NFL with five rushing TDs. Brandon Marshall and Davone Bess are on pace to combine for 149 catches, which would be a team record for a Dolphins tandem.
Detroit at Tampa Bay 1 p.m., Buccaneers by 41/2
Tampa Bay is 8-0 against teams with losing records, 0-5 against opponents with winning records. After facing Detroit and Seattle at home, the Bucs close the season on the road at New Orleans. Despite not playing much early in the season, Tampa Bay RB LeGarrette Blount has 667 yards rushing and five TDs, both second among NFL rookies.
Arizona at Carolina 1 p.m., Panthers by 21/2
This is a matchup of the two worst offenses and passing games in the NFL, each of which will be led by rookie QBs. The teams have combined to use seven QBs, with the Cardinals posting a team passer rating of 59.7 and the Panthers 55.0. The Cardinals are still alive in the NFC West race, two games behind the Rams and Seahawks.
NewOrleans at Baltimore 1 p.m., Ravens by 11/2
New Orleans has won six straight and has scored at least 30 points in its last five games. A victory would give the Saints successive 11-win seasons for the first time since 1991-92. Ravens K Billy Cundiff needs four touchbacks to break the NFL single-season record of 40 (from the 30-yard line).
Philadelphia at NewYork Giants 1 p.m., Giants by 3
Including the playoffs, the Eagles have won five straight against New York. QB Michael Vick is second in the NFL with a 104.3 rating and leads NFL QBs with 483 yards rushing and seven TDs. Giants QB Eli Manning has 3,169 yards passing— his sixth consecutive 3,000-yard season—but a league-high 19 interceptions.
Atlanta at Seattle 4:05 p.m., Falcons by 6
The Falcons have a seven-game win streak, their longest since 1998, when they reached the Super Bowl. QB Matt Ryan has 31 victories in his first three seasons. If Atlanta wins its final three with him at quarterback, he will set an NFL mark for most wins in the first three years of a career.
Denver at Oakland 4:15 p.m. Raiders by 71/2
Oakland set a franchise record for points in winning the first game between these teams, 59-14, with 328 yards rushing. Denver QB Kyle Orton needs 347 yards passing to join John Elway, Jay Cutler and Jake Plummer as the only Broncos with at least 4,000 in a season. Denver QB Tim Tebow has accounted for four TDs on 13 touches.
AFC EAST
W L T PCT. PF PA
yNew England ... 11 2 0 .846 415 276 N.Y. Jets ............. 9 4 0 .692 273 242 Miami .................. 7 6 0 .538 225 244 Buffalo ................ 3 10 0 .231 256 339
SOUTH W L T PCT. PF PA
Jacksonville ........ 8 5 0 .615 295 331 Indianapolis ........ 7 6 0 .538 347 318 Houston .............. 5 8 0 .385 316 355 Tennessee ........... 5 8 0 .385 291 265
NORTH W L T PCT. PF PA
Pittsburgh ......... 10 3 0 .769 290 198 Baltimore ............ 9 4 0 .692 294 229 Cleveland ............ 5 8 0 .385 235 252 Cincinnati ............ 2 11 0 .154 262 345
WEST W L T PCT. PF PA
Kansas City ......... 8 5 0 .615 295 268 San Diego ............ 8 6 0 .571 388 260 Oakland ............... 6 7 0 .462 314 307 Denver ................ 3 10 0 .231 269 376
NFC EAST
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers
4:15 p.m.,WUSA-9,WJZ-13, Steelers by 51/2
The Jets are 0-7 in Pittsburgh, counting a playoff loss. They first played there in 1970, the year of the NFL merger, and did not beat Steelers at home or away until 1988. The Steelers’ defense allows a league-low 60.1 yards rushing. Since the merger, the 2000 Ravens have the best average (60.6) for a full season.
SMARTER STATS: It’s time to give Steelers wide receivers MikeWallace andHinesWard their due.Wallace ranks fourth in the league with 15.4 air yards (yards from the quarterback’s hand to the receiver’s hand, with no yards after the catch) per completion, andWard (surprisingly enough) averages 10.4, which is also in the top 20.
USERS PICKING THE STEELERS 90%
Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots
8:20 p.m.,WRC-4, WBAL-11, Patriots by 14
The Patriots have scored an NFL-high 31.9 points per game; Packers have allowed a league low of 14.5. Pats QB TomBrady leads the NFL with 29 TD passes and hasn’t thrown an interception in his last eight games.His streak of six games with at least two scoring passes and no INTs is tied with DonMeredith’s for longest in NFL history.
SMARTER STATS: There are so many aspects to a 2010NewEngland offense that is among the most productive in NFL history, but perhaps the most overlooked is the team’s offensive line. The Pats rank second in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards metric, and are allowing just 14 percent negative plays in all their rushing attempts (third best in the NFL).
USERS PICKING THE PATRIOTS 94% SMARTER STATS
Why can’t the Bengals win a game? Start with the fact that their offense has plummeted in the season’s second half, especially the run game. In opponent-adjusted efficiency, the Bengals ranked 21st in Weeks 1 through 9, and dead last ever since. The passing game hasn’t been much better: from 15th to 25th in the same time.
The 2010 Texans have the ninth-worst overall defensive efficiency in the history of our numbers, but most of that is on the pass defense. This season, Houston is the seventh-worst team in sacks per pass attempt, sixth-worst in interception rate, second-worst in yards per pass play allowed, and second-worst in first downs allowed per game.
Rams rookie QB Sam Bradford is showing a lot early on, but offensive coordinator Pet Shurmur doesn’t seem convinced at times. Though he has an accurate deep arm, Bradford’s Rams are averaging just 5.7 yards per pass play, third-worst in the league. The Chiefs have allowed just 6.35 yards per pass play this season.
We’ve noted how underrated Bills DT KyleWilliams is, and it’s time to start putting S DonteWhitner in that same category – or at least place him among the overworked. Among all safeties, nobody has more plays in in his general area thanWhitner’s 120. Houston’s Bernard Pollard is the only other safety with more than 100.
With the Bucs’ Gerald McCoy out for the season, it’s safe to say Detroit’s Ndamukong Suh has won the competition among early- drafted rookie defensive tackles. Few defensive tackles of any status have Suh’s combination of pass rush ability and sheer strength, while McCoy struggled to hold the point at times.
One thing you can be sure of: If you miss this particular contest (as most of America surely will), you won’t deny yourself any passing highlights. The Panthers have the NFL’s worst yards-per-pass average at 4.81 and the Cards come in second at 5.26.
It isn’t as if SaintsWRMarques Colston should be under the radar— he’s done enough in his short career to merit more face time— but it seems as if it’s tough to get people to notice him. Drew Brees has no such problems. Colston is the ninth-most targeted receiver in the league, and with a Catch Rate of 66%, he’s also one of the most efficient.
In “air yards” (yards from the quarterback’s hand to the receiver’s hand, with no yards after the catch), no team has two more dangerous receiving threats than DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. Jackson ranks third in the league with 15.5 air yards per completion, while Maclin ranks 14th with 10.6.
No team has a bigger swing between its liabilities and its vulnerabilities than the Seahawks. According to Football Outsiders’ efficiency metrics, they rank 29th in offense, 29th in defense, and first on special teams. Return specialist LeonWashington may be the team’s most valuable player.
Slowly but surely, the Raiders have been putting together a defensive front seven worth talking about. Make a point to watch rookie DT Lamarr Houston. Oakland currently ranks 10th in defensive adjusted line yards, and no team has a better defensive adjusted sack rate.
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
8:30 p.m. Monday, ESPN, Bears by 71/2
With the roof collapse at theMetrodome, the site of this game is set for outdoor TCF Bank Stadium on theUniversity ofMinnesota campus. The Vikings are one of nine teams that began the week eliminated from playoff contention.
SMARTER STATS: No matter where this game is played,Minnesota’s offense is going to have trouble doing anything, and that would be true if Brett Favre were still healthy. The Vikings currently rank 27th in one offensive efficiency metric, and the only time the Bears loosen up against the run is on third down when they go to more passing fronts. Between JoeWebb and Patrick Ramsey at quarterback, there aren’t many options for the Vikings.
USERS PICKING THE BEARS 88% USER PICKS
59% picked the Browns
72% picked the Texans
63% picked the Chiefs
91% picked the Dolphins
93% picked the Buccaneers
80% picked the Cardinals
51% picked the Saints
55% picked the Eagles
96% picked the Falcons
95% picked the Raiders
W L T PCT. PF PA
Philadelphia ........ 9 4 0 .692 374 308 N.Y. Giants .......... 9 4 0 .692 329 250 Washington ........ 5 8 0 .385 238 310 Dallas .................. 4 9 0 .308 321 366
SOUTH
W L T PCT. PF PA
Atlanta .............. 11 2 0 .846 335 243 New Orleans ..... 10 3 0 .769 330 240 Tampa Bay .......... 8 5 0 .615 260 267 Carolina ............... 1 12 0 .077 164 338
NORTH
W L T PCT. PF PA
Chicago ............... 9 4 0 .692 253 228 Green Bay ........... 8 5 0 .615 306 189 Minnesota ........... 5 8 0 .385 230 274 Detroit ................ 3 10 0 .231 285 309
WEST
W L T PCT. PF PA
St. Louis .............. 6 7 0 .462 245 268 Seattle ................ 6 7 0 .462 261 329 San Francisco ...... 5 9 0 .357 250 314 Arizona ............... 4 9 0 .308 243 351
x-clinched playoff spot
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