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Afghans’ faith in U.S. is faltering, poll shows
afghan from A1
the new poll, 49 percent support the move, with 49 percent op- posed. “We want the Afghan forces to
be able to control security so the foreign forces can leave,” said Mohamed Neim Nurzai, 40, a farmer from Farah province who participated in the poll. After a big drop last year,more
than a quarter of Afghans again say attacks againstU.S. and other foreignmilitary forces are justifi- able. Overall, nearly three-quarters
of Afghans now believe their government should pursue nego- tiations with the Taliban, with almost two-thirds willing to ac- cept a deal allowing Taliban lead- ers to hold political office. Nearly a third of adults see theTalibanas more moderate today than they were when they ruled the coun- try.
But the surge of U.S. troops
and reconstruction funds in Hel- mand and Kandahar have im- proved many residents’ percep- tions of their quality of life. In Helmand, 71 percent now rate their living conditions as “good,” up from44 percent late last year, and 59 percent give positive marks to the availability of jobs, up from just 14 percent. In both southern provinces, public as- sessments of the availability of clean water andmedical care are sharply higher than they were a year ago, running counter to trends elsewhere.
U.S. challenge Although the findings in Hel-
mand and Kandahar amount to a rare dose of hopefulness after nine years of war, the trends elsewhere illustrate the chal- lenges and risks facing the Obama administration and its NATO allies as they seek to mar- ginalize a resilient and adaptive insurgency. Those are among the issues being examined by the National Security Council in its review of the Afghan war, which will be presented toObama in the coming days. Senior U.S. military officials contend that the spread of Tali-
ban activity to previously stable parts of the country doesnot pose an existential threat to the Af- ghangovernment, andthey argue that security gains in the south will have a spillover effect else- where. But Afghans as awhole do not share that optimism. For many Afghans, security
concerns are rivaled by growing economic worries. Two-thirds
“We clearly have to continue to provide the message to the Afghan people about why we’re here and what it is that we want to do . . . for the people of this country and for the government of Afghanistan.”
—U.S. Gen. David H. Petraeus, top coalition commander in Afghanistan
view the availability of jobs as a problem, and nearly twice as many see things deteriorating as opposed to getting better. “Aside fromsecurity,we have a
lot of problems,” said poll respon- dent Mohamed Nurzaid of Nim- ruz province. “Joblessness and the prices at the markets keep going up.” TheU.S. government has spent
more than$4billionover thepast year on reconstruction and eco- nomic development projects in Afghanistan. Two-thirds of Af- ghans say at least a good amount of the foreign aidmoney pouring into the country is being misdi- rected for personal gain by gov- ernment officials. For all the perceived pockets of
improvement in Kandahar, 55 percent of respondents there say they have been asked for money
6
on
washingtonpost.com The big picture
Complete data from the Post-ABC News-
ARD-BBC poll of sentiments in Afghanistan can be found at
washingtonpost.com/polls.
or other payment fromthe police in exchange for favorable treat- ment, well above the national number of 21
percent.Most Kan- dahar residents feel their situa- tion would only get worse were they to file a complaint about a public official.
Taliban’s image Support for the Taliban has
jumped in Kandahar, where 45 percent nowhold favorable views of the
group.The same 45percent of Kandahar residents see the Taliban as having a strong pres- ence in their area. But nationwide support for the
Taliban remains tepid. Afghans overwhelmingly prefer the cur- rent government over the Tali- ban, and almost three in four continue to say it was good that the
U.S.military toppled the Tali- ban in 2001, although that num- ber is nine points lower than it was a year ago. Despite the U.S. government’s
persistent skepticism of Hamid Karzai’s leadership,more thansix in 10 respondents feel the Afghan president is doing an “excellent” or “good” job. Fifty-nine percent of Afghans said they believe their country is headed in the right direction, a drop of 11 percentage points froma year ago. Another change in the country
over the year is a 13-point jump in the number of Afghans who say women’s rights are suffering. While majorities of Afghans con- tinue to support girls’ schools, voting rights forwomenandtheir ability towork, 50percent oppose women going outside their home unaccompanied by a male rela- tive. The poll is based on in-person
interviewswith a randomnation- al sample of 1,691 Afghan adults, conducted Oct. 29 to Nov. 13 by the Afghan Center for Socio-Eco- nomic and Opinion Research in
The pollingmethod Conducting a public opinion
survey in Afghanistan is a big challenge. There is no current census of the population, some places are inaccessible for security reasons, and most adults have no formal education. But it is possible to collect quality data. Here’s how. Random selection is the key component in any poll, and interviews for this survey were conducted in person among adults selected at random based on where they live. The first step in the sampling
process used here by the Afghan Center for Socio-Economic and Opinion Research in Kabul was to select random locations in each of the country’s 34 provinces. The center randomly selected districts within provinces and villages or neighborhoods within districts. Residences were then selected by
the “random route, random interval” method, in which interviewers chose households and adults within households based on a predetermined formula. Male respondents were interviewed only by male interviewers, female respondents only by female interviewers. The final sample included 227 sampling points that were adjusted by population of province and sex by region, according to estimates from the Afghan Central Statistics Office. Of the country’s 398 districts, 59
were inaccessible for security reasons during the field period of Oct. 29 to Nov. 13. Female interviewers could not work in an additional 75, including all of Paktika and Uruzgan provinces. Despite these limitations, the poll represents 85 percent of the national population. The survey had a contact rate of
86 percent and a cooperation rate of 94 percent, for a response rate of 81 percent.
—Jon Cohen
Kabul, a subsidiary ofD3 Systems of Vienna. Interviews were ad- ministered in Dari and Pashto, the country’s two principal lan- guages. The results have a mar- gin-of-sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
chandrasek@washpost.com cohenj@washpost.com
Staff writer Ernesto Londono and special correspondent Javed Hamdard in Kabul and polling consultantMeredith Chaiken contributed to this report.
Q:
poll in collaboration with ABC News, ARD and BBC Afghans support negotiating with Taliban
Most Afghans support negotiations with the Taliban, but if a deal meant ceding control over certain provinces, support would crumble.
Q:
Do you think the government in Kabul should negotiate a settlement with Afghan Taliban in which they are allowed to hold political offices if they agree to stop fighting, or do you think the government in Kabul should continue to fight the Taliban and not negotiate a settlement?
CONTINUE FIGHTING/ NOT NEGOTIATE
Dec. 2009 Jan. 2009 Nov. 2007
NOW Q:
23 28 25
NEGOTIATE WITH TALIBAN 32% 60%
73 65 64
No
opinion 8%
11
4 7
As you may have heard, the Afghan central government has entered into informal negotiations with the Taliban. How willing would you be to accept an agreement between the central government and the Taliban? What if an agreement to stop the fighting ceded control over certain provinces to the Taliban?
If ceded control In general
NOT WILLING WILLING 33% 65%
61 37
No opinion 3%
2
Surge has not helped United States’ image among Afghans How would you rate the work of the United States in Afghanistan? 68%
Q: Tose saying excellent or good 57 42 32 38 32
October 2005
Q:
October 2006
November 2007
January 2009
December 2009
NOW
Te Americans have added 30,000 additional U.S. troops to their force in Afghanistan, and other NATO countries have added 7,000 more. Is this increase in U.S. and NATO/ISAF forces something you (support/oppose)?
December 2009 NOW
OPPOSE SUPPORT 36% 61%
49
President Obama has said he will begin withdrawing U.S. forces next summer. Would it be your preference to have American and NATO/ISAF forces begin to leave Afghanistan next summer, should they leave sooner than next summer, or should they stay longer than that?
NOTE: Because of rounding, not all percentages add up to 100.
SOURCE: Tis Washington Post/ABC News/ARD/BBC poll was conducted by the Afghan Center for Socio-Economic and Opinion Research in Kabul, a subsidiary of D3 Systems of Vienna. Interviews were conducted in person, in Dari or Pashto, among a random national sample of 1,691 Afghan adults Oct. 29 to Nov. 13. Results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Complete data from the poll can be found at
www.washingtonpost.com/polls. THE WASHINGTON POST 49 Stay longer
Depends on security situation
17 27% 26 28 No opinion: 2
No opinion 3%
2
Leave next
summer
Leave sooner
e
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