question of the month


The questions are set bymembers of the Air Logistics China editorial advisory board, but if you have a question you would like answered please send it to us


TOMHOANG


Regional director, cargomarketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes


“World air freight is now approaching 11months of continuous recovery. The recovery has been faster and stronger than anyone could have predicted. “The industry growthwill


be slower going into 2011 thanwhatwe sawin 2010. However,we are cautiously optimistic that the air cargo industrywill continue to growthrough 2011, returning to the historical high traffic levels of 2007 in the coming year. “Whilewe believe the


PETER ULBER


Executive vice president sea and air logistics, Kuehne + Nagel International


”This year so far has surprised the industry, with an unprecedented recovery of freight volumes and air freight rates.Much of the capacity reduction which took place in 2009, by taking out older and less fuel-efficient freighters, seems likely not to re-enter themarket. “It is expected that the


industrywill have sustained growth in the coming year, a number of challenges remain – due to a sluggish economy. “Consumer spending is not expected to have a


“The recovery has been faster and stronger than anyone could have predicted”


significant pick-up due to low, though improving, consumer confidence as high unemployment levels still persist in a number ofmarkets such as the US and Europe. “On the positive side, uncertainty of demand


brought by the slowrecovery of the global economy is likely to drive companies to use air cargo. Air freight will be driven more by‘demand chain’ than‘supply chain’, firms taking advantage of the industry’s timeliness and flexibility as theymanage their inventories. “Another challenge for operatorswill be to balance


air cargo capacitywith demand, particularly as parked freighters are returned to service and the new generation of large freighters are delivered and enter service.”


air freightmarkets will return to amoremodest growth pattern in 2011, with year-on-year increases of 3 to 5 percent. “On the surface, this


“A functioning air freight market is of the utmost importance”


couldmean calmer times are ahead. However, underneath, ongoing volatility in terms of certain trade lane volumes and strong fluctuation of rates levels have the potential for causing further unrest. New security requirements and the uncertain development of fuel costmeans thatmaking predictions is evenmore difficult. “While a continuous global economic recovery is


expected for the year 2011, the outlook is very different fromregion to region. A functioning air freightmarket is of the utmost importance to support these economic recoveries, allowing companies to quickly bring their products to those markets that are growing. ”In 2009, the drastic fall of air freight rates almost


led to the demise of some carriers in the industry. An opposite scenario of ever-increasing air freight rates would slow down the recovery of importers and exporters inmany trades. ”The interdependence between shippers, carriers


and forwarders is becoming increasingly obvious during these volatile times. Intelligent collaboration among these players can be the answer.”


AIR LOGISTICSCHINA 31


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