Barbara Jorgensen
Editor
barbara.jorgensen@
electronics-sourcing.com
Classic “good news, bad news” scenario
As of August, forecasts for the global semiconductormarket were rosy: iSuppli, IDC and Gartner were predicting chip revenue growth in the low- tomid-30% range for 2010. After 2009, it’s a huge relief.
The 2010 forecast does have tomake up for ground lost in 2009—
semiconductor revenue was in the red between 9% and 11% last year. Nevertheless, themarket is experiencing real growth—revenue was up even compared with the year 2000—just before the tech bubble burst. (see page 20)
The forecast is a classic “good news, bad news” scenario. It’s good news for
the electronics industry that has been suffering as a result of the global economic recession. Although the U.S. economy isn’t yet tracking the chip numbers, investment is going into IT and equipment which has always been one of themainstays of the componentmarket (along with consumer electronics). For chip companies, life is good.
The bad news is for buyers. The increased semiconductor revenue is
reflective of increased demand; however, supply is not keeping up. There are shortages, so getting the chips buyers need is or will be a problem. Additionally, prices are increasing for the products that are available. Even if the chipmarket is growing by units (which sources say it is), increased prices are also driving those rosy revenue numbers.
The next issue, of course, will be capacity. It is unlikely chipmakers and fabs
will add widespread capacity for fear of a glut like 2001. Capacity will come back slowly and cautiously.Many tech companies—chipmakers included—have discovered they can run profitably at the “new normal” of drastically scaled back employee rosters. If those and other jobs don’t come back, supply will be able to catch up with demand--but not for the reason we are hoping for. As long as the U.S. economy and job growth remains lackluster, growth in the consumer electronicsmarket remains a questionmark.
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CONTENTS September 2010 Vol 1No.5 6
News Assistance in forecasting demand
US LLP
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