DM p41 US Direct Feb09.qxp 29/01/2009 13:03 Page 41
US Direct
‘Flat is the new up’
As the global economy continues to show no sign of improvement, web marketers are being
forced to lower their expectations for 2009, says Brian Quinton.
T
here’s a saying going building over the last few years research firm eMarketer was revis-
around about online mar- won’t dry up and blow away ing down its 2009 forecasts for
keting for 2009: “Flat is because household budgets are in both total ad and online spending.
the new up.” The down economy a squeeze. According to CEO Geoff Ramsey,
will put such pressure on sales and That might be why, when asked spending for interactive marketing
on marketing budgets , the best to identify the medium that of all types should still see an
we can hope for is not to suffer offered their brands the greatest increase of “just below 10%” this
USDIRECT
too big a dip in either. opportunity for growth, those year.
And it’s all but official that the same marketers polled by the ANA In other words, marketers will
U.S. economy is indeed in a reces- pointed most often to social media continue to move money into
sion. Analysts pegged U.S. eco- campaigns (28%), and ranked viral new media – just at a slower rate
nomic growth at 0.2% for 2008 marketing/PR (19%) ahead of tra- than in recent years, including
and said they expect to see only ditional TV spots (17%), with Web 2008 – while old-media outlays
0.7% growth this year. advertising right behind (16%). In will continue to sink.
In such a climate, no one the cellar: print ads (7%), direct “The question of how far to
doubts will contract. The marketing (7%) and radio (5%). commit to online marketing is: Do
On the other
Association of National In the advergaming sector, com- you have the skill, the will and the
hand, the
Advertisers, a trade group with a panies marketing in a tough eco- till?” Ramsey says. “That is, have consumer
large number of the country’s nomic climate will still want to you gotten good at doing this new
behaviours that
biggest brands as members did a engage with their fans through a media stuff, does your CEO buy
have been
poll about marketing spend. branded game, predicts Kenny off on these new ways to reach
building over the
The bad news is that 33% of the Rosenblatt, CEO of Arkadium. consumers, and do you have the
1,400 respondents said spending “The ROI on an advergame is money?”
last few years
will be cut back in 09. But another still so much better than that of a Companies that haven’t tested won’t dry up
33% will keep budgets constant, typical online display ad that even the water in new marketing arenas
and blow away
although they might change their if online budgets are reduced, we such as mobile or virtual worlds
because
marketing mix. And almost as expect the number of requests we probably won’t find this a good
household
many – 27% – intend to increase get to increase,” he says. “Casual time to get started, he adds. But
marketing outlay. Some marketers games will continue to be used to those that have some usable expe-
budgets are in a
are betting that cuts will be made attract and engage soccer moms rience in online marketing may
squeeze.
on a corporate LIFO calculation: because the audience will still be find this time an opportunity to
last medium into the marketing there. Just because we’re in a really put that knowledge to work.
mix will be first out. This would recession doesn’t mean people will Ramsey points to the announce-
suggest sharp cutbacks or elimina- stop going on their computers ment by cereal maker Kellogg that
tion of spending in areas consid- every day and playing games. It’s a it will slash its 2009 broadcast
ered experiments. stress reliever, a getaway, and it’s budget by an unspecified amount
“2009 is not the year for test- free.” and put that money into online
ing,” MediaVest USA president of Digital marketing undoubtedly marketing, where its Special K
investment and activation Donna will feel the recessionary bite in brand has found greater returns This article first
Speciale told an audience at 2009. But forecasts suggest the real than on TV over the last 18 appeared in DIRECT,
Ad:Tech New York last October. loser will be marketing through months. The company has hired (www.directmag.com),
“Brands want to stick with areas traditional media – TV, radio and Web marketing agency Pure a New York-based
that are tried and true.” publications – and by comparison, Visibility to help sharpen those magazine published
On the other hand, the con- online marketing will fare pretty online efforts by providing by Penton Business
sumer behaviors that have been well. At press time, marketing improved Web metrics.
n
Media.
www.dmarket.co.uk Database Marketing February 2009 41
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