According to the latest report from So-
cial Security’s trustees, the trust fund that helps pay retirement benefits is expected to run out by the end of 2033. The current trajectory will lead to sig-
“These are
people on fixed budgets who have contributed to this system for most of their lives, who will be forced to make decisions that would seem Third World to
most Americans.”
— Alex Lawson, executive director
of Social Security Works
nificant benefit cuts within the next eight years, according to Alex Lawson, execu- tive director of Social Security Works, a progressive advocacy group focused on protecting and expanding Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. “If nothing changes by 2033, all 70 mil-
lion recipients will face cuts of between 17% and 23%, which for many seniors would be nothing short of a total and complete catas- trophe,” said Lawson. “These are people on fixed budgets who
have contributed to this system for most of their lives, who will be forced to make deci- sions that would seem Third World to most Americans,” he added.
CRYING WOLF For much of the public, the repeated claim that Social Security is doomed has lost the visceral gut punch it once had. For decades, politicians have warned
that Social Security is on the verge of col- lapse, yet despite these grim predictions, seniors have continued to receive their pay- ments as promised.
When Is the Social Security Trust Fund Running Out? Social Security asset reserve amount at year-end (in trillion U.S. dollars) and scenarios of depletion.
4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0
2016 ‘20 ‘30 ‘40 ‘50
High-Cost Scenario Intermediate Scenario Low-Cost Scenario
During the presidential debates in 2000,
Vice President Al Gore repeatedly stressed the importance of protecting Social Security by placing its trust fund in a metaphorical “lockbox” to prevent Congress from divert- ing surplus funds for other uses. Without this safeguard, he argued, Social
Security could face bankruptcy by the 2020s. The “lockbox” was never implemented, and payments continued without interruption. In 2005, President George W. Bush warned
the program was on the brink of financial col- lapse due to demographic shifts, particularly the aging baby boomer population. But noth- ing changed and recipients continued to re- ceive their checks. In 2012, Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., House Budget Committee chairman, warned about Social Security’s looming insolvency in his budget proposals, especially “The Path to Prosperity.” A month after finalizing the proposal, the
Senate rejected it 57-40. More than 13 years later, seniors still re- ceive their benefits as promised.
‘60 2067
OASI DI combined. In CPI-indexed 2023 dollars. Oficial SSA projection only until year before depletion. SOURCE: Social Security Administration 2023 OASDI Trustees Report
FUNDING OUT OF WHACK However, this time experts say there is a valid reason for concern — and the numbers seem to support them. In June, the 2025 Social Security Trust-
ees Report projected that the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund will
62 NEWSMAX | OCTOBER 2025
COUPLE/JBRYSON©ISTOCK
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