DEFIANT Thousands of Trump supporters gathered in Washington, D.C., last December to denounce the election results, and the president spoke at a “Stop the Steal” rally on January 6 shortly before a mob invaded the Capitol building.


mier pollster. Asked what factors would mo-


tivate Trump into running in ’24, Madonna replied without hesita- tion: “Vindication.” “Trump firmly believes that


widespread corruption cost him the presidency. Study after study has refuted this claim to no avail. Yet a large percentage of Trump’s base believes the corruption argument.” Madonna also underscored the


view that “Trump, in his ‘heart of hearts,’ believes he is the individual to lead the nation — the most quali- fied candidate, with the best ideas to solve the problems the nation faces.” Donald Trump has “a belief that


in light of the many failings of the Biden administration, he is the best one to turn America around,” says Gerard Kassar, chairman of the New York State Conservative Party. Left to his own analysis of the


political scene and his own sense of public opinion, Trump, then, should become a candidate and, in all likelihood, win the Republican nomination in ’24. But there are other factors down


the road that could present prob- lems.


Bumps Down the Road? Republicans have a history of talk- ing up seemingly stellar candidates three years before a presidential election who then turn out to be


Trump firmly believes that widespread corruption cost him


the presidency. Study after study has refuted this claim to no avail. Yet a large percentage of Trump’s base believes the corruption argument.”


“not for prime time” well before the early bird Iowa caucuses — or even before the straw polls held in vari- ous states the year before the ballot- ing for president. In November 2009, the newly


elected governor of New Jersey was immediately boomed as a GOP standard-bearer against President Barack Obama in 2012. But Chris Christie steadfastly focused on his job in Trenton and made no moves toward national politics. Even as monied “establishment”


Republicans such as hedge fund billionaire Paul Singer and “reli- gious right” leaders in Iowa offered their common support, Christie said no to a run for president. When he finally did get around


to running in 2016, the political landscape had changed, and Chris- tie was lost in the Republican shuf- fle and faded fast. In 2012, having reformed Wis-


consin’s public pension system and survived a union-spawned


— G. Terry Madonna


recall, Gov. Scott Walker basked in national publicity. His name was wildly cheered at Republican gatherings across the nation and “Walker for President” clubs mush- roomed. Reelected as governor in ’14,


Walker subsequently launched a bid for president and flopped quickly. The skills he evinced as a reformer and survivor of a recall movement were not those needed for a presidential candidacy. “The great motivating force be-


hind a person running is a sense that he or she will win,” says his- torian David Pietrusza, author of several critically acclaimed books on presidential election years. “Statistics prove this is invari-


ably a false assumption at least 50 percent of the time. In many cases it is an outright delusion.” Could Donald Trump, currently


a big favorite for nomination if he chooses to run, encounter similar bumps in the road in the months


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