manage the economy, according to a July 2021 poll conducted by Third Way, a Democrat centrist group. Further, nearly two-thirds of likely
2022 voters (63 percent) are convinced by the argument that Democrats are being irresponsible and recklessly spending, which has led to higher pric- es on consumer goods, according to recent polling conducted by our fi rm, Schoen Cooperman Research. Democrats also trail Republicans
on immigration, as migrant encoun- ters at the southern border soared to record highs in July. Indeed, our poll fi nds that voters trust Republicans (46 percent) more than Democrats (37 per- cent) to address immigration. Furthermore, Biden’s approval rat-
ing on the COVID-19 pandemic — once his strongest area — has dramatically declined since this spring. In late April, 69 percent of Ameri-
cans approved of Biden’s handling of the pandemic, according to an NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll. Yet by the end of August, that num-
ber had dropped by 16 points to just 53 percent, according to the same pollster. All that said, Biden’s greatest failure
is arguably his handling of the with- drawal of troops from Afghanistan. Our poll fi nds that voters disapproved (56 percent to 35 percent) of the way the withdrawal occurred. And of those who disapproved, a majority (58 per- cent) blame Biden rather than Presi- dent Donald Trump (12 percent) or both administrations equally (22 per- cent).
The optics alone are incredibly dam- aging to Biden’s presidency — and pos-
sibly even to perceptions of the United States in the international community. As Biden’s ratings on key issues con-
tinue to decline, congressional Demo- crats have real reason to worry about their 2022 prospects. In our poll, we analyzed the 2022
generic congressional horse race and found that Republicans come out ahead by 2 points (48 percent to 46 percent) when respondents who are initially “not sure” are allocated based on which way they lean — as the poll found undecideds to be strongly nega- tive to the administration, rating Biden unfavorably by 50 to 33 percent, while voters overall rate Biden positively by 50 to 46 percent. Moreover, with congressional Dem-
ocrats having approved a budget blue- print $3.5 trillion spending bill — which will bring massive across-the-board tax increases and will likely increase the debt, defi cit, and infl ation — we can expect that an even more substantial electoral backlash is coming, along the lines of what we saw in 1994 and 2010. In the 1994 midterms under Presi-
dent Bill Clinton, Democrats suff ered a blowout defeat following the passage of the then-largest tax increase in history, which the Democrat Congress passed that year without Republican support. And in 2010, during President
Barack Obama’s fi rst midterm election, Democrats lost control of the House — and Republicans won back more than 60 seats — due in large measure to vot- ers’ perception of governmental over- reach on healthcare and the economy by the administration and Democrats in power.
What Do You Think of . . .
Biden’s withdrawal from Afghanistan
62% APPROVE
26% DISAPPROVE
Democratic Party 56%
33% UNFAVORABLE FAVORABLE
Republican Party 49%
37% UNFAVORABLE FAVORABLE Nancy Pelosi 62% UNFAVORABLE 31% FAVORABLE
Kamala Harris 54%
UNFAVORABLE OCTOBER 2021 | NEWSMAX 41
That said, it is noteworthy that
the mere circumstances of the 2022 midterms also present challenges for Democrats.
Republicans need to pick up just fi ve
House seats, and redistricting alone could cost Democrats close to or even more than that number. Further, since World War II, only
twice has the president’s party gained seats in the midterm elections — in 1998 during the Clinton administration and then in 2002 during the George W. Bush administration. To note, both presidents had approv-
al ratings above 60 percent, and even so saw only meager House seat gains. According to a 2018 Gallup analy-
sis of midterm seat gains and losses, in midterm elections since 1946, the average loss for the president’s party is 25 U.S. House seats — presidents with an approval below 50 percent see their party lose an average of 37 House seats. Taken together with the potential
for increased electoral backlash against Democrats — and possibly even a wave election — the Senate could also be in play as well, notwithstanding the num- ber of seats that Republicans would have to fl ip. In short, by catering to the left wing
of the party, the Biden administration risks an outcome in the midterms simi- lar to 1994 and 2010, when similar big government initiatives cost the Demo- crats control of Congress.
Douglas E. Schoen is a Newsmax
contributor. He and Carly Cooperman are co-authors of a forthcoming book, America: Unite or Die.
35% FAVORABLE
GAS PRICES/BEN HASTY/MEDIANEWS GROUP/READING EAGLE VIA GETTY IMAGES / HARRIS/ CHIP SOMODEVILLA/GETTY IMAGES VACCINES/ALEX WONG/GETTY IMAGES
SOURCE: USA TODAY/Suff olk University poll.
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