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will run again,” said Pullen, “and that, to use the name of the old TV quiz show, is the ‘$64,000 question.’” Recent signs suggest Sinema may
call it quits. Observers note that she had only recently begun to collect the 42,303 signatures she needs to file by April 4 to be on the November bal- lot as an independent. While that number of signatures
SINEMA
is not difficult to gather, that Sinema started so late has added to specula- tion she will throw in the towel. The senator also raised only
$595,000 in the final reporting period (October-December) of 2023. This is less than one-fifth of the amount raised by Gal- lego in the same period. But Sinema neverthe-
GALLEGO
less has $11 million in her campaign kitty, com- pared to $7 million for
Gallego. With that amount, she cannot be written off — assuming she decides to run again.
‘LARGER THAN LIFE’ LAKE A former TV anchor and stalwart Trump supporter, Lake is often char- acterized as “larger than life” and “a force of nature.” She won the hotly contested Republican primary for governor in ’22. On the eve of the November bal- loting, she invoked the name of John McCain — by then dead for four years — and it may have cost her. “We don’t have any McCain Republicans in here, do we?” Lake shouted at a campaign rally. “All right, get the hell out!” Underscoring her point, the GOP
nominee then said: “Boy, Arizona has delivered some losers, haven’t they?”
McCain Republicans were not
happy. Whereas GOP State Treasur- er Kimberly Yee won reelection with a comfortable 55% (1,390,135 votes), Lake — who topped the ticket — lost to Democrat Katie Hobbs and accumu- lated 1,270,774 votes. Lake cried foul over her 17,000-vote
loss to Hobbs and went to court, but her challenges were dismissed. In choosing the Senate race instead
of a rematch with Hobbs for the gov- ernorship in ’26, Lake went with a big lead over any potential primary opponent. The nonpartisan Productive
Insights poll among likely Republican voters conducted in late November showed Lake with 40%, Sheriff Mark Lamb at 14%, 2022 GOP Senate nom- inee Blake Masters (who has since decided to run for the House) at 10%, and businessman Brian Wright at 4%, with 33% undecided. “With Blake Masters no longer in
the mix for the Arizona Senate con- test, Lake is likely to benefit the most as his 10% gets distributed,” said Mike Noble, CEO of Noble Predictive Insights, the leading nonpartisan poll- ing firm in the Southwest. “She is in the driver’s seat in the
GOP primary contest.” But in January, the race was thrust
back into the headlines following the resignation of DeWit and his sensa- tional charge that Lake had secretly recorded him in his home discuss- ing her passing on the Senate race to instead run for governor in 2026. At one point on the tape, the chair
said, “Just say, is there a number at which” she would not run. Lake is then heard in the audio tape
stating, “I can be bought? That’s what it’s about!” DeWit is then heard explaining:
“With Blake Masters no longer in the mix for the Arizona Senate contest, Lake is likely to benefit the most as his 10% gets distributed.”
12 NEWSMAX | MARCH 2024
“You can take a pause for a couple of years. You can go right back to what you’re doing.” Lake, obviously offended, shoots
back: “This is not about money; it’s about our country.” News reports focused on her use of
a secret wire, which is not a criminal offense in Arizona. When seconding the nomination
of fellow Trumpster Gina Swoboda to be the new state party chairman, Lake was booed at the Republican State Convention. “[The DeWit taping] absolutely
hurt her, and the booing at the con- vention showed this,” said former Rep. John Shadegg, R-Ariz. But he believes Lake will survive
the incident and go on to become the Republican nominee. “There isn’t a shadow of a doubt,
unless something else dramatic hap- pens,” Shadegg said. “She won the Republican primary for governor two years ago, and that’s the best predic- tor of the next statewide primary.”
GUESSING GAME No one is taking any bets on who will win either a two- or three-candidate race.
Sinema is an incumbent senator
and will have statewide name recog- nition.
Gallego has a following among his
party’s traditional power factions — from organized labor to the Hispanic community that he has prodigiously cultivated since entering politics. And Lake also has a following.
— Mike Noble, CEO of Noble Predictive Insights
She remains the big favorite for the Republican nomination and, given her near-miss for the governorship two years ago, a possibility to win in November. As to whether she will win — or Arizonans turn to Gallego or reelect a newly branded independent Sinema — no one can really say. What one can say with near-certainty is this is a race that will be watched outside the boundaries of Arizona, and analyzed for years to come.
GALLEGO/REBECCA NOBLE/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES / SINEMA/AP IMAGES
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