View From Europe


By Colin Ley


Fish and poultry boost for 2023 – not so good for red meat Rising demand for poultry and farmed fish during the year ahead will be offset by a weakening of beef and pork purchases. That’s the ‘win some, lose some’ scenario presented by animal protein strategists at Rabobank, headquartered in The Netherlands. The Bank’s farm and food sector analysts used their latest Global


Protein Outlook to forecast continuing strong demand for farm salmon this year alongside a boost for chicken sales, based on consumers looking for value for money buys in the face of the year’s ‘tough economic backdrop’. The Outlook conclusion for red meat was less promising, however,


with Rabobank’s protein team warning that consumers are likely to cut back on the more expensive cuts of meats, such as fillet steak, as the year progresses. The good news on the production front, meanwhile, is that animal


protein output is set to continue moving forward in 2023, according to the Dutch bank. However, while forecasting a year-on-year production growth of 5 million tonnes over the next 12 months, Rabobank’s analysts pointed out that this equates to an advance of just 1%, half of what was achieved in 2022. “The past year has been like no other for the animal protein


industry,” said Justin Sherrard, Global Strategist for Animal Protein at Rabobank. “Companies have grappled with rising input prices, supply chain disruption and geopolitical strife in the past 12 months, with many of these issues remaining unresolved as we head into 2023.” While all this is clearly challenging enough, Mr Sherrard’s


conclusion is even more daunting, albeit with a little bit of hope blended in.


“The greater challenge is how animal protein companies approach


the next decade of growth, not simply the year ahead,” he said, adding that structural changes in the market, such as an increasing awareness of carbon footprints and a proactive approach to managing disease, offer opportunities for the most forward-thinking companies to invest and prosper.


“In other words, it is now decision time.”


Feed sector impact How such end product forecasts will play out for our own sector is obviously hard to predict, a point which became crystal clear in late December when I sought a ‘view on 2023 prospects’ from a leading European compounder, only to told they were refraining from giving guidance or an outlook for the coming year due to changing market situations, alongside the continuing geopolitical and macroeconomic


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uncertainties. A perfectly reasonable response, of course, but one that tells its own story. Thankfully, food isn’t an optional purchase, a fact which means


our industry will always be focusing much more on how to address the future than whether or not we have a future at all. This remains one certainty for 2023 at least. I’ve often banged on about the innovations and ideas of feed


sector start-ups over the past couple of years and suspect the next 12 months will see more of the same. Livestock farmers will certainly be looking for greater feed efficiency this year as they seek to address consumer concerns about price and food security. By the same token, feed compound leaders will be looking for production, processing, and distribution efficiencies of their own. Success in this respect is often a case of continuing to do what


you’ve done in the past but doing it better in the future. The big challenge right now, therefore, is to spend even less than before while somehow managing to produce more. That is certainly the 2023 solution being pursued by major land-


locked fish farming business in central Germany, whose CEO gave me an enlightening interview in the run up to Christmas. Running a RAS (Recirculation aquaculture systems) enterprise,


which this farm is, has many in-built health, welfare, and management benefits. The downside is that such rewards are secured in return for relatively high energy inputs, based mainly on pumping and purifying the water resources involved. When I asked, therefore, how the business was coping with the


recent surge in energy costs, the CEO’s response was simple enough. While most ‘average’ RAS farms require six or more kWh to produce one kilo of marketable fish, he pointed out, it should be possible to operate closer to 2kWh per kilo produced. Cutting energy usage by that much will require all the farm’s RAS processes to be working on or near to their potential. That is the new target, therefore. Alongside businesses applying such self-help activities this year, or


at least utilising more of their existing potential than in the past, anyone with a bit of feed-based blue-sky research to toss into the mix in 2023 will be welcomed with open arms.


UK change needed on edible insects Making full use of what is already on the table, particularly in terms of technology and raw materials, is another self-help area which always needs attention, not least when economic recession is in the air. This is very much the context in which leading animal feed sector


researcher, Dr Pattanapong Tiwasing, has called on the UK to introduce a ‘Great Britain-specific transitional measure’ to enable the edible insect sector to survive in the UK. Otherwise, he warned, this will become a wasted resource. His point is that while the European Commission approved the


sale of whole insects and their ingredients in 2018, subject to specific authorisations, these rules still do not apply in the UK where edible insects are currently not regulated or approved for sale. As a result, while edible insects have featured in Asian, African, and South American diets for centuries, they have, until recently, been seen as a novelty food in Western countries, often being relegated in status by featuring


Comment section is sponsored by Compound Feed Engineering Ltd www.cfegroup.com


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