LONDON CHOCOLATE FORUM REVIEW 2026


COCOA’S FUTURE MAY DEPEND ON WHICH GROWING MODEL WINS


Dr. Martin Gilmour, Director of Chase Cocoa Consulting, presented a sobering outlook for global cocoa production at the London Chocolate Forum 2026, warning that disease and ageing trees threaten West African supply while highly intensive farming in South America is expanding rapidly.


D


r. Martin Gilmour began his keynote with a reminder that cocoa-producing countries do not necessarily remain cocoa-


producing countries. When he joined Mars in 1990, Malaysia was a major focus of industry attention. Today, its cocoa production has all but disappeared. Brazil experienced a similarly dramatic decline after Witches’ Broom disease devastated its crop. “So it’s not a given. If a country is producing


cocoa, it’s not a given that it can’t get out of cocoa or that it will continue as a cocoa- producing country,” he told delegates at the London Chocolate Forum 2026. That historical perspective framed


his assessment of the industry’s future. Africa remains the dominant source of cocoa, accounting for around two-thirds of global production, but Martin believes West Africa is facing structural challenges that will be difficult to reverse. Meanwhile, South America — particularly Ecuador — is developing production systems that could increasingly influence the global market. His concerns begin with the farmers


themselves. Drawing on decades of work across cocoa-growing regions, he described a sector largely dependent on older farmers managing small plots, often without access to the resources needed to improve productivity. “They are the bedrock of our entire sector,


and I pay them enormous, enormous respect,” he said of cocoa farmers, before acknowledging the difficulties many face. Farms of around three to five hectares are common in West Africa, while younger generations can be reluctant to enter a profession offering uncertain returns and demanding work. Martin argued that improved planting


material is one of the most important routes to higher yields. Better trees, combined with fertiliser and effective pest and disease management, can make a substantial difference. Yet, as he pointed out, the practical obstacles are considerable: improved planting material is in short supply, fertiliser is expensive, and pests and diseases continue to erode output. “If only it was that simple,” he said.


trees can remain in production long after their most productive years. Martin believes this is contributing to a


longer-term decline in West African production. He was particularly critical of the lack of access to improved planting material in Côte d’Ivoire, arguing that the balance between new, productive trees and those dying from disease is moving in the wrong direction. “I’m pretty pessimistic about cocoa from


SO IT’S NOT A GIVEN. IF A COUNTRY IS PRODUCING


COCOA, IT’S NOT A GIVEN THAT IT CAN’T GET OUT OF COCOA OR THAT IT WILL CONTINUE AS A COCOA-PRODUCING COUNTRY


In Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, cocoa Swollen


Shoot Virus is a particular concern. The disease damages trees, reduces yields and can ultimately kill them. Replanting is difficult for farmers who depend on existing trees for income, particularly when the replacement crop takes time to become productive. As a result, ageing and diseased


Ivory Coast, and the similar thing is happening in Ghana as well,” he said, making clear that this was his own assessment. Asia offers limited grounds for optimism in his view. Indonesia, once a much larger producer, has also faced declining output, disease and competition from alternative crops such as oil palm and rubber. Other emerging production areas may contribute, he suggested, but are unlikely to compensate quickly for losses elsewhere. South America presents a different picture.


Ecuador has expanded rapidly, supported by improved planting material, irrigation, fertiliser delivered through irrigation systems and more intensive farm management. Martin described these operations as “scarily efficient”, while warning that monoculture and limited shade can introduce their own risks. Brazil, too, is rebuilding its cocoa sector, with some newer operations following Ecuador’s more intensive approach. His central message was that productive


trees, motivated farmers and effective farm management underpin the future of cocoa. But the two contrasting pictures he left with delegates were stark: “dead and dying trees in West Africa” alongside “intensive modern cocoa agriculture in South America”. “Which one of these is going to prevail?”


he asked. Martin’s outlook was cautious. He expects supply shortages and persistently high prices to remain a concern over the next few years, although he acknowledged the industry’s capacity to innovate and adapt. The 2026/27 crop season, he suggested, would be an important test of whether production could recover sufficiently.


OCTOBER 2026 • KENNEDY’S CONFECTION • 19


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