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TIMBER TIMBER MARKET


STABILISES AS HOUSING HITS THE HEADLINES


With timber import figures showing more stability in 2023 than we’ve seen in years, all eyes turn to housing as a key battleground in the upcoming general election. TDUK explores what an increase in housebuilding could mean for timber.


T


he timber import sector is enjoying a return to stability following three challenging years, according to the latest TDUK import figures. Brexit, the Covid pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have proved a perfect storm for timber and much of the wider construction industry in recent years. Yet, despite ongoing high inflation and the rising cost of living, it seems timber imports stabilised in the first half of 2023, with figures closely resembling the patterns seen pre-2020, this suggests that stability is returning. TDUK’s head of technical and trade, Nick Boulton, explains: “We saw huge fluctuations in timber import levels between 2020 and 2022, but barring another major market shock, we are unlikely to see these dramatic peaks and troughs return anytime soon.” Softwood imports during the first half of 2023 stood at 3,217,000m3 - just 5% down on 2022 levels, compared to 17% falls in 2022/2021 and a staggering increase of 49% between 2021/2020.


Following record totals in 2022, hardwood imports have also seen more muted variations in 2023, with volumes sitting between 37,000m3 and 45,000m3 month on month. This stability has been echoed across the panel sector, where there has been monthly volume consistency in: plywood, MDF and OSB categories, which boads well for 2024..


Boulton continues: “Though import stability has returned, the market situation in the UK remains tricky, with both inflation and interest rates remaining high. For this reason, the Construction Products Association have predicted a slowdown in the crucial private housing and RMI sectors, which is likely to impact timber imports in Q3 and Q4. “We must also be aware that the loss of Russian wood to the European market and the effects of climate change will significantly tighten wood supplies in the coming years, making the efficient and effective use of wood resources an increasing priority.”


Housing back on the agenda Despite these predictions of a slowdown in the private housing and RMII sectors, the recent Party Conference season has seen housing return to the headlines, with both the Labour and Liberal Democrat parties pledging an increase in housebuilding if they win the next general election.


While Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s conference speech made no mention of housing, the Labour party promised to build 1.5 million homes over the course of the next parliament by overhauling the planning system, allowing for more building in ‘grey belt’ areas (brownfield sites on green belt land). Sir Kier Starmer has also pledged to build a new generation of towns in these areas.


December 2023 www.buildersmerchantsjournal.net


The Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, announced the most ambitious targets out of the major parties, promising to build 380,000 homes a year if elected. They also focused specifically on modern methods of construction (MMC), with their conference paper promising “significant purchases of MMC homes” as part of their social housing programme. With its low embodied carbon and excellent versatility, timber is the ultimate MMC material, capable of building an abundance of high-quality, green homes in the UK.


Housing is a core driver of timber demand in the UK, with TDUK statistics regularly showing a positive correlation between private housing and structural timber imports.


Planning reform is not a magic bullet to the housing crisis, particularly in a time of high interest rates and inflation. What it may do, however, is provide the sector with a much- needed supply-side boost, allowing for more homes to be built in the areas that need them the most..


The focus on brownfield development must also be viewed as good news for our industry. Timber homes require fewer deliveries, less labour onsite and are often quieter to assemble than steel and concrete buildings, making it ideal for urban or grey belt housing developments, but like any political pledge, it must be approached with caution. BMJ


23


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