talking trade WILL JONES Chief Operating Officer of the British Home Enhancement Trade Association (BHETA)
What’s making the tills ring this summer?
I
’s always good to know what’s happening in the real world of EPOS data and be able to set that evidence alongside the official
figures from the ONS [Office for National Statistics].
Looking at the latest information from the GfK BHETA Index, which reflects what happens at point of sale, we are now able to consider the latest rolling year of market performance from July 2018 through to June 2019. The result appears very much in line with official Government statistics, with the topline showing that all categories in home enhancement and home improvement have achieved value growth over the period with only three exceptions: tabletop, air treatment and garden.
Drilling down into the figures, housewares
remains fairly flat as certain categories continue to perform incredibly well, while
others struggle.
Bar accessories (+1.5%) and kitchen accessories are still proving their ability to make the tills ring and others, which are notable for all the right reasons, are lunch boxes and flasks (+3.5%) and food/kitchen storage (+2.9%). Summer weather, yet again, is a major factor in this success. Interestingly, however, the category which has managed the biggest overall growth in value terms is that of small domestic electricals (+1.3%) - something which is encouraging, as many purchases in this area tend to be considered. The main positive performers here have been hot beverage makers (+2.9%) and vacuum cleaners (+4%).
Despite these glimmers of hope for the
future, we need to remain aware of the fact that overall value growth, while positive, remains at a lower rate than it was a year ago.
• For more information about BHETA, contact the member services team on 0121 237 1130 or visit
www.bheta.co.uk.
And overall consumer confidence has shown another drop compared to last year - now at minus 13 as opposed to minus 9. Given that uncertainty still prevails as the dominant mood of the nation, however, perhaps we should be glad that the EPOS data is as positive, relatively speaking, as it is! It comes to something when sunshine rather than ‘the powers that be’ drives quite so many fortunes. In conclusion, I do remain positive about the
prospects for a continuation of this value growth and one that’s higher than the figures we are seeing now - even if it is largely down to sunny weather and individual effort. It would be such a bonus to see some certainty of direction at national level to boost the mood.
Consumer Price Index The Consumer Price Index (CPI) 12-month rate was 2.0% in June 2019, unchanged from May 2019. The largest downward contributions to change in the 12-month rate between May and June 2019 came from motor fuels, accommodation services and electricity, gas and other fuels.
Retail Sales In the three months to June 2019, the quantity bought increased by 0.7%, with growth across all sectors except food stores and department stores. However, this was a slowdown from the stronger growth of 1.6% in the three months to May 2019. The quantity bought in June 2019 increased by 1.0% compared with May 2019.
Mortgage Approvals According to the Bank of England, mortgage approvals for house purchases (an indicator of future lending) fell back slightly on the month to 65,400, though remained broadly in line with the narrow range seen in previous years. The number of approvals for remortgaging also fell in May 2019, to 46,700.
House Price Index Average house prices in the UK increased by 1.2% in the year to May 2019, down from 1.5% in April 2019. Over the past three years, there has been a general slowdown in UK house price growth, driven mainly by a slowdown in the south and east of England. The lowest annual growth was in London, where prices fell by 4.4% over the year to May 2019.
Labour Market The UK employment rate was estimated at 76.0%, higher than a year earlier (75.6%); on the quarter, the rate was 0.1% points lower - the first quarterly decrease since June to August 2018. The UK unemployment rate was estimated at 3.8%; it has not been lower since October to December 1974.
Construction Output
Construction output growth was flat in the three- month on three-month all work series in May 2019. This was because of a fall in repair and maintenance of 0.5% being offset by a 0.3% increase in new work.
Commodity Prices Energy prices plunged 10.7% in June. Combined with a 2.8% drop in May, the sell-off has almost
wiped out four consecutive months of gains earlier in the year. Non-energy commodities rose 1.8%. Grains continued to surge, jumping 7.5%. Precious metals rose 5.2%.
Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) The UK Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.0 in June from 49.4 in May. This points to the steepest contraction in the manufacturing sector since Feb 2013 as production contracted and new orders dropped the most for almost seven years, amid high stock levels, ongoing Brexit uncertainty, the economic slowdown and rising competition.
Foreign Exchange Analysis Sterling was little moved on July 23 after Boris Johnson won the contest to be Britain's new prime minister, as investors worried whether he would lead Britain towards a no-deal Brexit. 1 GBP = 1.12 EUR 1 GBP = 1.24 USD
Source: BHETA Economic Snapshot - July 2019
July/August 2019
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