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How long can National Grid cope with growing demand?


Alex Hill, Whitecode Consulting managing director, reveals how sustainability targets may see the UK National Grid struggling to cope with demand and underlines the importance of the construction industry doing what it can to help before it’s too late


W


ith the UK aiming to reach Net Zero in 2050, decarbonisation is going to play a pivotal role in producing sustainably


sourced and cheap electricity for UK customers. However, with the increased numbers of electric vehicles and the electrification of heating systems, there are concerns the National Grid may not cope. Identifying and utilising energy efficient systems has gained increasing significance in recent years, but with this comes the potential for further demand on the National Grid. This is especially pertinent with the increased uptake of electric vehicles in the UK and the government’s suggestion of using heat pumps to heat buildings. Indeed, the likely increased demand for industrial, domestic and commercial usage facilitated through wider UK electrification could see Britain’s power plants struggling to cope. As a result, some doomsday predictions could see Britain with 39 gigawatts less power than previous forecasts. That would essentially mean 28 hours during 2035 when there may not be enough supply to meet demand. Research carried out by the BBC last year also


revealed that billions of pounds’ worth of green energy projects were on hold because of a lack of capacity on the National Grid.


EV uptake


As of March 2024, there were around 1.7 million EV cars in the UK. While this number is encouraging when it comes to reducing the UK’s carbon footprint, there may be scenarios when these EV owners plug in their vehicles at the same time. As a result, the demand on the National Grid could be significantly increased. The increased EV uptake means the demand for electricity must be managed effectively and it’s important the National Grid works with all policymakers, regulators and the government to support the needs of a decarbonised transport network.


Heat pumps


With the heating sector dominated by natural gas, and around 24.5 million UK homes currently using national gas as their main source of heating, reducing this fossil fuel dependence is a key focus for the foreseeable future. In a bid to try and reduce carbon emissions by


2050, the UK government is recommending the use of heat pumps. While these energy efficient systems could play a significant role in the decarbonisation


Electricity pylons in use on the UK’s National Grid. While the government is proposing the use of heat pumps as a way of reducing a building’s carbon emissions, industry leaders have expressed concerns over the potential increased demand on the UK’s National Grid as a result


with batteries and photovoltaics could ensure more effective load shifting and a reduced demand on the National Grid. Ensuring a system-wide approach to flexible heating where new heating systems are closely integrated with heat storage, smart controls and programmes that reward households that shift any consumed energy, could be incredibly prudent. Furthermore, encouraging the storage of heat


Solar panels on top of commercial property roof. With sustainability increasingly coming into focus, low-carbon technologies such as solar panels could play a vital role in the decarbonisation of heating in properties


of heating buildings, switching to heat pumps could actually increase electricity use at peak times and the demand on the National Grid.


A holistic approach


With the government looking to reduce carbon emissions to zero by 2050, it’s important that property builders and system manufacturers identify ways in which heating electrification through heat pumps can be combined with renewables and battery technology to provide a truly sustainable heating solution. Indeed, while heat pumps offer a significant energy efficiency benefit, combining heat storage


from heat pumps in a super-insulated cylinder could enable building owners to store energy at a time when demand is low, and electricity is cheaper. This energy could then be released to heat the building when it is needed, limiting the need for new generation capacity and staggering the use of electricity throughout the day. With the government’s target of Net Zero by 2050


now just 26 years away, the time is now for the construction industry to pay close attention to the ever-changing demands on the National Grid and how it can help. Of course, taking a holistic approach isn’t the only thing the construction industry can do. Contractors, heating engineers and asset owners can also utilise effective education and training to deepen others understanding of the benefits of utilising energy efficient systems in the right way and the potential advantage of load shifting to consume power during periods of lower demand and cheaper tariffs.


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