4. NEVER BACK EACH WAY Bookmakers love each way, consequently punters should not! I have long held the belief that the returns you get (of a fifth, a quarter or even occasionally a third the odds) for a place are not commensurate with the doubling of a stake especially when the starting odds are over 16/1. For example let’s assume we place £10 each way at a quarter the odds a place for a horse that is 16/1. The returns should it not win are £50 for an out- lay of £20 which equates to 6/4. If you took the time to pro- gramme in all the statistics of all the horses running in a day at odds of 16/1 or more and found out the ratio of how many of those horses ran into a place you will begin to realise how much of a bookies benefit backing each way is. I am not advocating not hedging your bet (further explained in point 5) but what I am suggesting is not limiting your safety net to blindly backing each way. So what are the alternatives? I prefer my own variance which might seem complicated at first but will be- come second nature after practice. Namely (and this is shown in the bet- ting slip below) I would place £10 to win and (in the case of a 13 runner
race) 12 x £1 straight forecasts on your horse to finish second to the field. I accept that there are no returns if it finishes third but the returns on it finishing second can be huge as even a 3/1 shot to beat your horse returns somewhere in the region of 50/1.
5. THE ART OF HEDGING YOUR BETS Bookmakers do it to limit their liabilities and we should do it to guarantee (where possible) a return on our original bet. This only applies when your original selections odds have shrunk due to it performing well. It is probably best to explain this by example; take a golf event where you have backed a golfer at 50/1 to win for the tune of £10. Your returns would be £510 should he win. My variation on securing a return would be to in- crease my original bet to £12 in the hope that the odds dimin- ish and therefore on that extra dividend of £100 (£2 x 50/1) I would then be in a position to back other golfers in the final throng of a competition as insurance of a return with this “mythical” £100. As odds change rapidly you can reestablish your position very late on to accommodate this, especially as in most live events there are instantly updated odds available at the touch of a button. Just click on to a price comparison site such as
www.oddschecker.com and click on an event and see how rapidly odds change. I accept that this type of action
might be complicated and difficult to understand and some of you might not wish to even bother but the sooner that you re- alise that adopting a professional approach to your hobby, the sooner you will maximise your returns irrespective of who you fancy. It is akin to bull/bear activity in the City. Here then are my first five golden rules, the next five will ap- pear next month.
Over to you DoNAld. Bernie the Book
It’s been a busy month on the sporting front and we at DNA have had a busy time at work. You may be aware that the Taxi Insurance market has been going through a torrid time with yet another leading player in the market pulling out. If you are experiencing big increases in your premium contact us:
www.dna-insurance.co.uk. Returning to the sporting front , thanks for all your responses to last month’s article. I got some interesting England teams with ex-players from your own clubs but none could shine a light to the ex-Hammers. Sad to see Bernie’s predictions for league success last month, slipping down their respective leagues. Arsenal proving his best bet at 5th. My own predictions going strong with 3 of the 4 being in pole position with Southampton beginning their way to the top. (Note from Bernie the Book; the competition is over a season - not a month) I’m looking forward to the Rugby Autumn Internationals al- though I expect England to struggle against the All Blacks and then the Aussies. The Samoans and South Africa will then fall victim to the backlash. I think William Hill’s price at 7/4 for Johnson to go is a good bet. Borthwick will probably lose skipper’s role also. Whilst I like to talk sport my main aim is to attract you to my Company. I will be happy to answer any taxi, chauffeur, minibus or related questions you may have. You can contact me by e-mail:
donald@dna-insure.co.uk I would also like to hear your views on the forthcoming Ashes series as cricket’s not really my bag and I’d like to include something about it in my next column.
Cheap Chauffeur Insurance Need Chauffeur Quote? 0844 573 0542
needchauffeurquote.com NOVEMBER 2010 PHTM PAGE 97
3-30 Ascot
£10 win Avocado Surprise @ 16/1 plus 12 x £1 CSF
Avocado Surprise 2nd to the field
Total bet £22 22 -
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