the internet or learning digital skills in solitude (as in Robert Putnam’s Bowling Alone), libraries would provide access to knowledge and social connection combined.
l Governance and leadership – Governance should not be viewed as a ‘silver bullet’ to improve a library service. Evidence suggests that the silver bullet, if one exists, is most likely strong lead- ership. Choices around governance are often seen as an important choice for a library service strategy but we know of no examples of a change in governance leading to a struggling service being turned around. Rather, leaders of services which are already high performing tend to engineer a governance model best suited to local goals and context. Although different future scenarios may suit different govern- ance models, decisions about governance forms should come second after decisions about function and purpose, which only good leadership can deliver.
have changed as times have changed. And more than that, they are agents of change – allowing communities to grow and develop.
She says: “Public libraries are as important today as they were over a century and a half ago when they first became an essential part of communi- ties across the country. Then, as now, the library was a trusted place where people could go not just for knowledge and information but for support and companionship.
“Inevitably, times change; while the core purpose of our libraries remains the same, they must continue to adapt if they are to meet the challenges of modern-day life.” The report looks at both challenges and opportunities facing public librar- ies, and highlights examples where library services have taken an inno- vative approach. This approach, says Baroness Sanderson, “makes clear that decline is not inevitable but, as many services have shown, reversible. Where some might see problems – such as with an ageing workforce – this report spots opportunities. As it clearly states, its aim is ‘to see a wider perspective and imagine different possibilities.’ “Libraries can – and do – play a key role in tackling current societal issues be that adult literacy, digital isolation or early years learning. They can help peo- ple into employment, improve health and wellbeing and above all provide a safe, non-judgemental space for people of all ages, no matter who they are or where they are from.
January-February 2024 “They are, in short, a vital part of our
social infrastructure which is why we must be vigilant in protecting them for future generations. This report, and accompany- ing library futures toolkit, should help do just that.”
Come rain or shine draws from current trends to help shine a light on what the future could look like in 2040, helping to focus attention on longer term planning and development. It identifies seven key areas where action can be taken – visits, governance and leadership, finance, workforce, digital, value propositions, and social infrastructure. Those seven areas help to build up a picture of the current situation and allowed the authors to explore what impact they might have on the future landscape. The report’s authors used these as a foundation for its horizon scanning, adding uncer- tainties and creating different scenarios – following an easy-to-understand weather forecast style: Storm warning; Sunshine and showers; Blue sky days; and Another grey day.
In its conclusion, the report identifies three areas where libraries can concentrate efforts to achieve maximum positive impact.
l Digital access and social isolation – Public libraries are uniquely placed to meet two population scale needs driven by two of the strongest and most certain societal trends: enabling digital access (from basic skills to using advanced tech); and combatting social isolation. A “People’s Network 2.0” would be both a digital enabler and a social connector simultaneously. Instead of users accessing
l Futures literacy – The library professionals who worked with us on this project found it ‘rewired’ their minds, enabling them to see a wider perspec- tive and imagine different possibilities “beyond the same-old same-old”. This kind of thinking is vital at a time when uncertainty about the coming decade is high, but at the same time it seems harder than ever to think beyond the short-term.
And while the report talks about conclu- sions, the reality is that it is just a starting point which is why Come rain or shine is supported by a toolkit to help libraries pre- pare for the future – whatever it may bring. This toolkit provides a series of resources that make it straightforward to assess library services, helping to lay the ground- work for longer-term planning. As well as helping to identify potential challenges, it can also help flag opportunities. The aim is to give service managers the chance to be proactive and make decisions now that will allow them to prosper and create services for the future.
The clear message is that, while the future is unknown we can all take steps to ensure we are as well prepared as pos sible. We might not be able to pre- dict what will happen next, we can build resilience and equip services to ensure they are adaptable and able to meet the needs of a changing landscape, while avoiding potential pitfalls.
The report ends by saying: “When every library service can see the future not as one path but as a series of equally possible routes, they can take action today which equips them for uncertain and unpredict- able outcomes – come rain or shine.”
* The report was commissioned by CILIP and created by Shared Intelli- gence with funding from Arts Council England. You can download it for free at
www.cilip.org.uk/future-libraries
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