MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA DATA: FORWARDKEYS
Sub-Saharan region a bright spot in otherwise ‘premature’ Africa recovery
Leading travel analytics firm ForwardKeys has downplayed any suggestion of an imminent revival in Africa’s travel markets. Luke Barras-Hill studies key indicators for the continent.
A
ccording to Olivier Ponti, VP Insights at ForwardKeys, carriers are flexing their
prices to jumpstart the rebound in international travel to the Middle East and Africa. While this spells good news for
duty free operators such as Dubai Duty Free, Qatar Duty Free, Aer Rianta International and Lagardère Travel Retail, key spending branches in the form of transfer traffic – particularly important in the case of the first two operators – remain challenged. The resumption of business travel
in earnest coupled with higher incidences of point-to-point travel for leisure passengers choosing convenience and reducing their dwell times in the airport due to health and safety concerns linked to the coronavirus (Covid-19) are obstacles, suggests Ponti. But the fact remains that low
fares are tempting travellers back to flying. A fourth quarter projection of fares to Africa and the Middle East based on flight searches carried out in September for the period of travel covering October-December year-on-year produces some interesting insights. Ticket prices to the Middle East
from key source markets the UK, France and the US were down by as much as -18.5% (US), with fares to North Africa (aside one exception) plunging by up to -22.2% in the worst case (France). Sub-Saharan Africa fares
weathered the price volatility a little better in the UK and Germany, though France and the US suffered steeper blows at -20.2% and -12.6%, respectively. South Africa officially reopened
its borders on 1 October, although restrictions are in place on tourists from ‘high-risk’ countries such as the UK (correct at the time of writing).
NOVEMBER 2020
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Sub-Sahara is indeed the driving force behind the reactivation of Africa, says Olivier Ponti.
Indeed, countries across the continent are displaying a myriad patchwork of travel restrictions and this is duly reflected in the seat capacity being offered by airlines, observes ForwardKeys.
North Africa outlook Compared with North Africa, the Sub-Sahara region is witnessing an improved number of flights, yet these still fall below corresponding year-on-year figures. A ForwardKeys tracker on the seat
capacity evolution for international flights in Sub-Saharan Africa reveals a drop from 1.2 million seats as of the 5 January (prior to the pandemic) to circa 200,000 seats on 24 May, before climbing slowly to reach approximately 400,000 seats as of 13 September. Conversely, North Africa’s
approximately 500,000 seats on 5 January had virtually disappeared by 10 May. While the region has seemingly regained ground since
May, seat capacity remains at a much lower base of around 200,000 as of 13 September. Olivier Ponti, VP of Insights at
ForwardKeys told TRBusiness: “What we can see is that Sub-Sahara is indeed the driving force behind the reactivation of Africa. “However, to say recovery is on
its way for Africa is overly optimistic, particularly after examining the Q1 on the book data which shows the Middle East, North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa all remaining in the negative.” «
“What we can see is that Sub- Sahara is indeed the driving force behind the reactivation of Africa. However, to say recovery is on its way for Africa is overly optimistic.”
Olivier Ponti, VP Insights, ForwardKeys
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