Spotlight on top tourism nations
Which countries have the most tourism potential and which are showing the most growth? GlobalData’s Tourism Potential Index (TPI) gives an overview of the top 60 nations for tourism
1 Fastest-growing markets Iceland once again boasted the fastest-
growing market in percentage terms in 2017, albeit from a small base. The country tops the list compiled using a ranking based on forecast average annual growth in international arrivals (Compound Annual Growth Rate, CAGR, in Figure 1). These forecasts are based on factors such as capital investment, GDP and disposable income in main source markets.
GlobalData predicts Iceland will see average annual growth between now and 2021 of 11.7%, spurred by new budget flights and the expansion of Reykjavik’s Keflavik airport. Bottom of the table, in 60th place, is France, the world’s most visited nation, whose potential for growth is limited – GlobalData estimates this at just 1.1% per annum.
Second-placed Japan is the only other nation to have estimated double- digit growth potential. The depreciation of the yen, modernisation of air and seaports and the 2020 Olympics are helping its appeal.
All the top 10 countries boast estimated annual growth of at least 7.5%.
2 Star players
GlobalData also assigns star ratings to each of the 60 nations surveyed, ranking them in terms of tourism potential from very low to very high. The star rating is based on four elements of potential: significance (20%), competitiveness (20%), attractiveness (35%), and convenience (25%) to give an overall percentage score out of 100. No country achieved a five-star rating this year, an accolade awarded to Singapore and Switzerland last year, which were both said to have “very high potential” with few barriers to expansion or demand.
20 wtm insights summer 2018
FIGURE 1: COUNTRIES WITH FASTEST ANNUAL GROWTH FORECAST RANK COUNTRY
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10
51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60
ICELAND JAPAN
HUNGARY SRI LANKA CHILE
GREECE
SOUTH KOREA INDIA
MEXICO IRELAND
TUNISIA
PORTUGAL FINLAND
GERMANY SWEDEN
SWITZERLAND TURKEY BELGIUM EGYPT
FRANCE *CAGR: Compound Annual Growth R ate
FIGURE 2: TOP FIVE COUNTRIES WITH MOST POTENTIAL TO INCREASE TOURISM
SCORE (CHANGE 2017/2016) SINGAPORE AUSTRIA PORTUGAL SRI LANKA UK 56.5% (-7.5)
SCORE 39.1 47.7 46.3 52.8 34.5 44.5 47.5 37.4 36.9 42.4
30.6 53.9 36.6 43.4 49.3 48.0 32.7 42.2 34.8 40.7
STAR RATING X X
X X X X X X
X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X
X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X
CAGR 2017-2021* 11.7% 10.6% 9.3% 8.7% 8.6% 8.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.5%
2.5% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.4% 1.1%
55.6% (-2.3)
53.9% (+2.6)
52.8% (-0.4)
51.5% (-0.8) Source: Tourism Potential Index 2018, GlobalData
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