INSIGHT
Two exhibitions, one clear message for the lubricant industry
Michael Herson, Director, The Strategy Works
Two international lubricant trade exhibitions held 8,000 kilometres apart, within 3 months of each other, had delivered a remarkably consistent message by Q4 2025. Inter Lubric in Shanghai and Lubricant Expo in Düsseldorf both pointed to the same underlying shift; lubricant demand is re-aligning geographically, and the industry’s response is increasingly collaborative rather than vertically isolated.
What stood out was not any single technology or product launch, it was the clear alignment of behaviours across the value chain. To examine how these
dynamics are unfolding, researchers from The Strategy Works conducted structured interviews with exhibitors across both events, assessing commercial priorities and mapping the themes that are beginning to converge.
Global demand pivots from West to East The global lubricants market is shifting structurally, with China, India, and Southeast Asia becoming the dominant drivers of volume and growth. Meanwhile, Western demand is being reshaped by Gen Z’s waning interest in costly car ownership - now less tied to identity or independence - as expanding urban transit networks, stronger environmental awareness, and the rapid rise of mobility-as-a-service models influence behaviours.
In contrast, in many Asian markets, first time ownership amongst under 30s continues to grow, driven by income growth, expanding middle classes, and the persistent social values attached to private mobility. That demographic divergence is already shaping demand patterns.
Trade flows mirror the shift: Chinese customs data shows sustained automotive-additive exports into regional hubs such as Singapore, South Korea, and the UAE, which together absorbed more than half of China’s outbound volumes in the ten months to October 2025. The commercial footprint is widening too. Ten Chinese exhibitors from Shanghai secured booths in Düsseldorf, twice the 2024 count, with
46 LUBE MAGAZINE NO.191 FEBRUARY 2026
Regulation is reshaping supply chains Lubricant demand follows this trajectory with a deliberate reorientation towards fast growing markets with stable growth and fewer regulatory bottlenecks. Markets such as Indonesia and Vietnam remain fundamentally ICE-dominated, whereas Thailand’s more developed automotive base continues to generate demand through ongoing fleet renewal and rising specification standards.
companies such as Jiangsu Aorun Advanced Materials and DowPol Chemical International reporting that exports now account for 70% of their sales.
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