One successful strategy is to anticipate changes and jump on replacement options
Last but not least and most obviously: disruption (e.g. through regulation) is good for agile. A very recent and prominent case is PFAS, or the potential banning thereof.
PFAS (per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances), and the OECD definition “Any substance that contains at least one fully fluorinated methyl (CF3-) or methylene (-CF2-) carbon atom (without any H/Cl/Br/I attached to it)” encompasses >10.000 PFASs. The press coined them “forever molecules” because, indeed, they last for a very long time, and can be traced in human bodies already.
In January 2023, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden submitted a proposal to ECHA to restrict PFASs going forward. Let’s put this into perspective. The global market size of all chemicals is €4.5 trillion. The global market size for PFAS is just over €26 billion (0.6% of total). However, societal cost are estimated at €16 trillion (600 x annual PFAS turnover), for e.g. direct healthcare, contaminated soil, or water purification [9]. In the lubricants industry polytetrafluorethylene (PTFE) plays a major role as extreme-pressure (EP-) additive, as friction modifiers or as thickener for industrial oils (usually in PFPE base oils which are under scrutiny as well). After a consultation phase between March and September 2023 the ECHA is expected to come to a decision by Q1/2024. However, industry players started to react already:
Many major producers of PFAS have already announced a stop to PTFE production. Many other producers face court cases and heavy liability charges., and formulators have started to look for or even to use alternative substances.
Speaking in 1999, Don Huberts, formerly of Shell, said: “The stone age did not end because the world ran out of stones, and the oil age will not end because we run out of oil.” [10]
The author’s own addendum to that is that PFAS will disappear from the market long before its use is prohibited.
Hans Gerdes graduated from Berlin University of Technology in Industrial Engineering, complemented with MBA-studies in Vancouver, Canada. He joined
Shell in 1991 in Chemicals as Business Analyst and joined the world of lubricants a few years later. Sales, marketing, business management and even procurement roles brought him to Kenya, Hungary, and the Netherlands, although his home base remained in Germany.
Hans started working for two different SMEs in the area of production and marketing of lubricants additives 5 years ago, in setting up operations and most recently in business development into other sectors. Focus is on corrosion inhibitors, EP/AW additives and solid lubricants for greases, aiming for a higher share of sustainable options for lubricant formulators. He is an active soccer referee and gave a TedX-talk in The Hague about his generation’s view on Climate Change.”
[1]
https://www.bbc.com/news/science- environment-67508331
[2]
https://kickbigpollutersout.org/articles/ release-record-number-fossil-fuel-lobbyists- attend-cop28
[3]
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how- delegations-at-cop-climate-summits-have- changed-over-time
[4]
www.globalwitness.org/en/press-releases/ hundreds-fossil-fuel-lobbyists-flooding- cop26-climate-talks/
[5]
https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/ deutschland-wie-die-wirtschaft-die- buerokratie-befoerdert-a-c2113fb6-add9- 4cf9-ae53-b3b4e607002d
[6]
www.diw.de/de/diw_01.c.882862.de/ verwaltungsqualitaet_bremst_wachstum_ von_unternehmen_eher_aus_als_
regulierungsdichte.html
[7]
https://reliabilityweb.com/articles/entry/the_ true_cost_of_poor_lubrication
[8]
https://klinegroup.com/reports/global- lubricants-market-analysis/
[9]
https://chemsec.org/reports/the-top-12-pfas- producers-in-the-world-and-the-staggering- societal-costs-of-pfas-pollution/
[10]
www.linkedin.com/pulse/stone-age-didnt- end-because-we-ran-out-stones-kandimalla
www.metall-chemie.com
LUBE MAGAZINE NO.179 FEBRUARY 2024
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