DIGITAL SPACE MODELLING
to model and test different capacity scenarios associated with distancing requirements as the Trust planned for winter. We set out to anticipate, and plan to avoid, overcrowding of the trust’s Emergency Department waiting rooms.
People movement study Undertaken in collaboration with Whittington, our people movement study used a 3D simulation of the Emergency Department patient attendance to successfully identify opportunities to both mitigate risks associated with the transmission of COVID-19, and increase the hospital’s capacity for Emergency Department attendances. Jonathan Gardner, director of Strategy and Corporate Affairs at the Trust, said: “Arup’s work added value to our business case, which successfully received funding, enabling The Trust to increase waiting room capacity in Autumn 2020.”
Leveraging the power of data In our people movement study we set out to: n Understand how busy Whittington’s waiting rooms might be during the winter of 2020.
n Establish how capacity was affected when adhering to social distancing.
n Review potential interventions, and advise on options to create additional waiting space.
No simple standard equation exists to tell hospitals or building owners how much capacity they need, and many healthcare buildings are stretched beyond their limit – which was particularly evident during the pandemic. Working closely with the Whittington Hospital, we analysed historical patient attendance data for the Emergency Department for the whole of 2019. We took this data and used it in two ways: to create a Power BI dashboard to visualise patient demand, and as granular input into a MassMotion simulation model to show individual patient journeys. Through our Power BI dashboard we
Via its Power BI dashboard, Arup was able to understand and highlight the busiest day and busiest month in the Whittington’s Emergency Department, and make clear comparisons across a full year.
could understand and highlight the busiest day and busiest month, and make clear comparisons across a full year. For example, while an average day’s attendance was 245 patients, on the busiest day the peak was 319. Analysis of the data identified important distinctions between the time spent in the Emergency Department – including time taken to be seen by a specialist, treatment time, and waiting time. This, coupled with an understanding of which patients would access diagnostic services before returning to the waiting room, allowed us to better understand how long patients spent in the waiting room and treatment rooms.
This rich dataset enabled us to develop a robust method to analyse patient attendance data, before visualising and testing different scenarios via modelling. Once we understood what peak demand looked like, we could move on to the pressing question – could social distancing be maintained within the Emergency Department on a busy day?
Making the unseen visible Using Whittington’s granular, anonymised patient data from attendance records, we created a 2D AutoCAD plan as a basis for an accurate 3D digital model. This digital model was then input into our pedestrian modelling software, MassMotion, to predict and visualise movements of patients as they passed through the Emergency Department for assessment and treatment. Developed in-house by Arup, MassMotion is the world’s most flexible pedestrian simulation software. Based on pioneering research into the science of people movement, and refined by data from real-world projects, the software provides technical analysis of people’s movement through physical spaces. It allows our planners and engineers to test their designs, population levels, and operational overlays, from a human perspective.
Individual ‘virtual agents’ With MassMotion, individual virtual ‘agents’ are modelled to represent and
Outside the A&E Department at the Whittington Hospital, with the blue and white ‘pods’ areas for expansion.
The view on turning left after the A&E entrance at the hospital. May 2021 Health Estate Journal 43
©Whittington Health
©Whittington Health
©Arup
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