AIR CARG O WEEK
MARKET FORECAST
SUPPLEMENT
AIR CARGO OUTLOOK: 2026 AND THE RUN-UP TO 2031
T
he global air-cargo market is entering a period of tempered but structurally positive growth. After the boom years that followed the pandemic - when supply-chain disruption and e-commerce buoyed demand - 2025 showed signs of normalisation and a return to more typical cyclical behaviour. IATA’s mid-2025
outlook signalled a marked slowdown compared with the abnormal highs of the preceding years, underscoring a fragile near-term environment for tonnage and yields.
2026 - A cautious recovery rather than a boom For 2026 the most plausible scenario is a modest recovery from the 2025 slowdown: not a re-run of pandemic-era expansion, but steady, single-digit growth driven by a mix of inventory re-balancing, continued e-commerce penetration and selective trade lane strength (notably Asia– Europe and intra-Asia). IATA’s short-term data through 2025 emphasises volatility month-to-month, which means carriers and forwarders should plan for uneven demand across corridors. Longer-running forecasts from the OEMs provide a helpful anchor.
Boeing’s World Air Cargo Forecast points to multi-year expansion in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTKs), implying sustained demand for freighter capacity even as growth rates moderate from the exceptional levels seen recently. Airbus’s Global Market Forecast similarly anticipates steady annual increases in air freight volumes, driven by Asia-Pacific and North America. Taken together, these projections imply that 2026 is more likely to be a year of consolidation and capacity realignment rather than dramatic traffic gains.
2026 - What to watch for commercially Operators should monitor freight yields, belly cargo availability (tied to passenger recovery trends), and trade policy developments (including de-minimis and tariff measures) that can re-route flows between air and sea. Freight forwarders ought to double down on digital capacity and dynamic pricing tools; McKinsey and industry commentators have flagged automation and data-driven capacity management as key competitive differentiators into the late 2020s.
Towards 2031 - Converging on mid-single-digit growth Looking to 2031, consensus forecasts diverge somewhat by source but converge on a mid-single-digit compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through the late 2020s and into the early 2030s. Boeing’s long-range view projects roughly a 4.0 percent average annual increase in CTKs across its multi-decade horizon, while Airbus projects a somewhat
lower but still
healthy annual rise (Airbus’s GMF cites roughly a low-to-mid 3 percent annual
increase for air freight). Those rates, applied cumulatively, imply that by 2031 global air-freight volumes could be roughly 25–32 percent higher than in the mid-2020s baseline, depending on which forecast one uses. Those headline growth rates mask important structural trends.
Express and integrator carriers are expected to outpace the industry average, supported by parcel growth and time-sensitive supply-chains. Conversely, traditional belly-dependent cargo will remain sensitive to passenger network health and will therefore see more regional variability. Boeing and Airbus both anticipate significant freighter
fleet renewal
and expansion to match this demand trajectory, with investment split between new-build freighters and passenger-to-freighter conversions.
Fleet and capacity implications Airbus’s 2025 cargo GMF underlines the scale of fleet change ahead: the dedicated freighter fleet is expected to expand materially over the next two decades, with a substantial share of that growth coming from conversions and replacements rather than all new-build freighters. Such a development will have implications for used-aircraft markets, maintenance and conversion specialists, and lessors who can provide flexible lease terms to meet rapid demand shifts. Reuters coverage of Airbus’s forecast also highlights the regional concentration of demand for new freighters in North America and Asia-Pacific.
Risks and upside Key risks that could push outcomes either way include global trade volatility, macroeconomic weakness, and protectionist policy moves. Conversely, upside could come from faster-than-expected e-commerce growth in emerging markets, reshoring of supply chains that favour air
over sea for higher-value goods, and technological change
(improvements in fuel efficiency, night-flying rules, or digital end-to- end paperwork reductions) that lowers effective cost and raises modal competitiveness. Boeing’s recent adjustment to some of its longer-term assumptions - trimming a few percentage points off certain growth metrics - serves as a reminder that forecasts are sensitive to the macro and policy backdrop.
Conclusion By 2026 the sector is likely to show steady, managed growth after 2025’s normalisation. By 2031, prevailing forecasts imply materially higher volumes than today - not a near-term return to boom-time expansion, but a durable growth trajectory that justifies fleet investment, digital modernisation and strategic agility. The precise path will depend on macroeconomic and policy variables, but the structural case for air cargo - speed, reliability and the premium for time-sensitive goods - remains intact.
See you next month!
James James GRAHAM, ACW Supplement Editor
The ACW Supplement Team
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AZURA INTERNATIONAL
In our next supplement, we look at World Airports.
If you wish to be involved, please contact the editor, James Graham at
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