AIR CARG O WEEK


MARKET FORECAST


A 2026 OUTLOOK: AMERICAN AIRFREIGHT RECALIBRATES


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“Since the pandemic, shipping has shifted from a single concentrated peak around the holidays to multiple peak seasons.”


he final quarter of 2025 gave the American airfreight industry something it hadn’t seen in years: some balance. According to IATA, global air cargo demand grew 4.1 percent YoY in late 2025 and available capacity grew 3.7 percent. The pricing environment, while milder, became more


predictable, a desirable shift for both carriers and forwarders planning 2026 bookings across US, Canadian and Latin American markets. Still, the macro viewpoint is uneven. While the US labour market showed resilience, persistent


downside risks included weaker


manufacturing output and consumer-spending uncertainty that could affect inbound flows from Asia and Europe into American gateways.


E-commerce Since the pandemic, shipping has shifted from a single concentrated peak around the holidays to multiple peak seasons, begging the question, “what exactly is the offseason?” In 2025, erratic ordering patterns from ultra-fast-fashion exporters and marketplace giants created mini-peaks outside traditional high- season windows at US gateways. E-commerce accounted for more than 20 percent of global


airfreight volume and approximately 65 percent of the transpacific trade


lane. Analysts expect this to grow in 2026, creating


unexpected surges that can put pressure on both primary coastal hubs and secondary inland gateways. This unpredictability means North American carriers and forwarders need to maintain flexible routing and space management strategies not just during peak season, but year-round.


Nearshoring The shift of manufacturing closer to the US, particularly to Mexico, is expected to continue in 2026. Northbound flows of electronics, auto parts, and pharmaceuticals continued to strengthen in 2025 as US companies diversified supply chains beyond Asia. This is fuelling demand for cargo throughput at Mexican hubs alongside the rising use of US border-adjacent airports in Texas, Arizona and California. Miami


International Airport has also seen steady flows


connecting South American manufacturing to North American distribution networks. As more production opens or


within the Western Hemisphere, air-cargo flows are becoming less transpacific-centric and more regionally distributed, infrastructure needs throughout.


reshaping


Trade policy US trade policy continues to put pressure on hemispheric aviation networks. The current administration’s signals on tariffs, particularly regarding China and potentially Canada and Mexico under USMCA renegotiation discussions, have created uncertainty for cargo planners. Additionally, the US Department of Transportation’s October 2025 proposal to restrict Chinese carriers


12 relocates


from using Russian airspace on transpacific routes to the US added a new layer of complexity, potentially affecting capacity and pricing on Asia-North America lanes. For Latin American and Caribbean gateways, periodic air-space


restrictions, such as Venezuela’s 2025 closure to Peruvian carriers, which added six hours to alternative routings through Colombian airspace, demonstrate how fragile regional connectivity can be. With the 2026 US election and ongoing negotiations across the hemisphere, regulatory and tariff uncertainty will likely remain front of mind for shippers moving goods through American networks.


Sustainability The cost of decarbonisation keeps rising across North American airfreight operations, and it’s becoming harder to absorb. US and Canadian carriers have warned that sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) pricing remains extremely unpredictable, with some operators directly accusing suppliers of flat out price gouging. While SAF mandates are less strict in the Americas than in Europe, carriers operating transatlantic routes face compliance pressure. For operators serving the Americas, the economics of compliance will become more challenging throughout 2026, and fleet planning.


influencing network


Retooled strategies across the Americas Entering 2026, carriers, forwarders and shippers throughout North and Latin America are making some tweaks. US and Canadian airlines are doubling down on fleet discipline, focusing on belly use on lucrative transpacific routes and deploying freighters selectively on high-yield intra-Americas lanes. Major U.S. integrators, FedEx and UPS, continue to refine their hub-and- spoke networks. Forwarders operating across the hemisphere are investing in digital quoting, predictive analytics and multimodal routing to manage volatility more effectively. Shippers, meanwhile, are diversifying sourcing beyond Asia, blending Chinese suppliers with Mexican, Brazilian and Central American manufacturing which favours regional air connectivity.


Closing outlook While the start of 2026 may bring a calmer operating environment for the Americas than the years before, it’s not exactly smooth sailing. Capacity on key transpacific and Latin American routes is plenty, but cost structures are still tightening. Although the North American airfreight industry is less reactive than during the pandemic era, the mix of US trade policy, nearshoring momentum, and sustainability pressures ensures resilience will


remain a


definitive competitive trait. So, rather than a full reset, 2026 is shaping up as a year of recalibration, a period in which operators across the Americas perfect balancing efficiency, flexibility, and being ready for whatever lies ahead.


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