AIR CARG O WEEK


MARKET FORECAST


POLMANS REFLECTS ON EMERGING TRENDS IN AIR CARGO


AS HE STEPS DOWN AS CHAIRMAN OF TIACA (THE INTERNATIONAL AIR CARGO ASSOCIATION), STEVEN POLMANS TOOK TIME TO SPEAK WITH ACW ABOUT HIS THOUGHTS ON THE FUTURE TRENDS OF THE INDUSTRY.


ACW: As we approach 2026, which macro-economic or geopolitical trends do you believe will have the greatest impact on global airfreight demand and capacity? SP: As we head into 2026, I would hope we’d be entering a period of more stable, moderate growth in global trade after several years of extreme volatility. But the geopolitical landscape remains very fragile and is becoming more fragmented, and that will have a much bigger impact on air cargo than macro-economics alone. The growing use of sanctions, shifts in trade policy and the reconfiguration of supply chains


around “China+1” or near-shoring strategies are already


reshaping flows. Capacity will also remain a key factor. Passenger networks are


“Air cargo will still have its distinct identity and its unique selling point being speed.”


back, but delays in new aircraft deliveries and an ageing freighter fleet could create ongoing and perhaps even further pressure later this decade. In short: I hope that perhaps not in 2026 but soon we’ll see more predictable demand, but a more complex and politically sensitive environment shaping where that demand moves.


ACW: How do you expect the continued growth of cross- border e-commerce to reshape network planning, service expectations and operational models for carriers and forwarders? SP: Cross-border e-commerce continues to redefine the industry. The market is very much concentrated and dominated by some large e-commerce platforms and that trend is not likely to change. As an industry, e-commerce is pushing us toward denser, more parcel-centric networks, and toward products that emphasise speed, predictability and full visibility. E-commerce customers expect real-time information, clear delivery windows and proactive communication, not just “airport to airport”. It’s also driving new operating models where airlines, forwarders,


platforms and last-mile providers are much more interconnected than before.


It also creates room for new companies, delivering specific


services needed such as the growth of custom brokers. The companies that succeed will be those that


integrate seamlessly ecosystems rather than trying to build everything internally.


ACW: What technology investments do you believe will be essential for air cargo stakeholders to remain competitive and compliant by 2026? SP: To remain competitive by 2026, companies need solid digital foundations: good data, interoperable systems and tools that reduce manual work at the warehouse and ramp. Adding infrastructure and adding staff is becoming a challenge at many locations in the world, so it is no longer only a question of investment and profitability. And without digital tools, we will continue to focus on that one unique offering we have, being speed. But today it is also about transparency, data sharing, consistency and also compliance and security technology is becoming as important as operational tools, given the rising scrutiny on safety, sanctions and documentation.


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ACW: How central do you think automation, AI-driven planning and digital trade documentation will be to air cargo competitiveness by the start of the next decade? SP: These will be absolutely central. Air cargo is not an industry that has been on the forefront of innovation and technology adaptation in the past decades, but this is changing with many new companies offering services and solutions. We won’t see fully automated warehouses everywhere, but robotics, automated sortation and smart storage will become much more widespread. AI will play a huge role in planning, matching capacity and demand, optimising schedules, and improving disruption recovery. And paper documentation will increasingly look like an artefact of the past. Full digital corridors where customs, security, carriers and handlers share data in real time should be the norm by the early 2030s on the main truck routes.


into these ACW: Are you seeing meaningful shifts in shipper


behaviour, such as modal switching or near-shoring, that could alter demand patterns over the next two to three years? SP: Yes, we’re seeing meaningful shifts that started after COVID and are now accelerated by geo-political and trade related concerns. Many shippers are diversifying production locations and building more regional supply chains, which creates new intra-regional air cargo flows. Some volumes have gone back to sea after the pandemic surge; air has secured a more strategic role for critical parts of the supply chain. More shippers now treat air freight as an essential component of risk management, not just an emergency solution. Sustainability is also influencing behaviour: some customers are


already making routing and procurement decisions based on emissions transparency and SAF availability. The environmental and cost impact or air cargo is something that will always work against us, but at the same time air cargo will always be part of an overall logistics solution that serves best the need of companies and consumers.


ACW: Looking further ahead to 2031, what long-term structural changes do you anticipate in airfreight flows, trade lanes, and the balance between passenger belly capacity and freighters? SP: On the one hand, by 2031, I expect trade flows to be more diversified, with strong growth in South-South lanes—Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia will play a much bigger role. And although passenger belly capacity will be fully restored, we won’t return to pre-COVID ratios because of freighter demand in e-commerce, express and special cargo. A lot of the passenger fleet on order is also for longer range narrow body aircraft, significantly reducing the availability of direct belly capacity to these growing but still smaller markets. So freighter will continue to play an important role and they need critical mass to operate profitable. So we might see the rise of some regional cargo hubs that serve specific industries or production clusters, through a handful of mega-hubs.


rather than everything funnelling


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