SUPPLEMENT


Things can only get better There have in fact been several notable air-freight forecasts from past decades that did come true. Some were surprisingly accurate about demand, fleet trends and structural shifts in the industry. Since the 1980s, both Boeing and Airbus have consistently


projected long-term annual growth in air-cargo traffic of around four per cent. Over more than three decades, actual freight-tonne- kilometre growth has averaged almost exactly this rate, even in the face of recessions and external shocks, demonstrating a striking alignment between forecast and reality. Industry analysts in the 1990s and early 2000s anticipated


the rise of twin-engine widebody aircraft and the corresponding decline of four-engine types. Their predictions that aircraft such as the Boeing 777, 767 and the Airbus A330—and later the A350— would become dominant providers of belly-hold cargo have proved entirely accurate. Today, 777s and A350s carry substantial freight across global networks, legacy four-engine freighters such as the 747 and MD-11 are rapidly disappearing from service, and new- build freighters are almost exclusively twin-engine variants, most notably the 777F and forthcoming A350F. Projections made from the late 1990s onwards consistently


suggested that express and priority shipments would expand more rapidly than general cargo, and that integrators such as FedEx, UPS and DHL would steadily increase their share of world air freight. This forecast has been borne out, with the express segment now the fastest-growing part of the air-cargo industry and a major contributor to global volumes. Between 2005 and 2015, analysts also predicted that e-commerce


would become a structural driver of air-freight demand, prompting a shift toward smaller, more frequent consignments and the global expansion of parcel-carrier networks. These expectations have materialised


decisively, particularly since 2015. E-commerce now represents the primary engine of structural growth in air


cargo. Companies such as Amazon, Alibaba and JD Logistics have established their own airline operations, while integrators have further expanded their fleets and hub infrastructure.


Freighter conversions Forecasts made in the early 2000s also highlighted significant future demand for passenger-to-freighter conversions, particularly for aircraft such as the 737, 757 and 767, as mid-life passenger jets found new utility in cargo operations. The market for conversions has since expanded dramatically. The 767 P2F has become a critical asset for operators including UPS, Amazon and LATAM, while programmes for the 737 and A321 are flourishing. In many years, the number of conversions has exceeded deliveries of new- production freighters. Expectations from the 1990s that the Asia-Pacific region would


become the world’s largest air-cargo market, with China emerging as a major global freight powerhouse, have proved correct. China is now among the world’s leading generators of export air cargo, while hubs such as Hong Kong, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Seoul and Taipei play pivotal roles in global logistics. The region now leads the world in FTK share. Despite periodic surges in demand for dedicated freighters,


analysts have long maintained that belly-hold cargo capacity would remain indispensable to international logistics. This continues to be the case: passenger widebodies still provide between forty and fifty per cent of global air-freight capacity, depending on the year. Finally, economists in the early 2000s predicted a market


characterised by strong long-term growth but marked by pronounced short-term volatility driven by macroeconomic cycles. This dynamic is now well established. The sector experiences recurrent booms and downturns every three to six years, yet its long-term demand trajectory remains stable and resilient.


“Two freighter


aircraft projects that were once promoted as


game-changers never took


off from the ground.”


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