AIR CARG O WEEK


MARKET FORECAST


2026 — NEAR-TERM MARKET REBALANCING AND RATE SOFTENING


“Carriers with modern, fuel-efficient freighters and strong express networks are likelier to preserve margin resilience even as unit yields compress.”


T


he 2026 outlook for airfreight should be read as a deliberate market rebalancing rather than as a demand collapse: volumes are expected to remain positive but capacity is re-entering the network at a pace that will take the heat out of the exceptionally tight post-pandemic


pricing environment. The immediate backdrop is familiar to the industry - an unusually strong 2024 in which global cargo tonne- kilometres and available tonne-kilometres behaved in ways that produced very high nominal yields - and multiple independent data providers characterise 2025 as a transition year in which those dynamics begin to normalise, says IATA. Market benchmarking firms that track both rates and capacity


flows are explicit that the structural combination of returning bellyhold volume (as passenger flying regains share of widebody lift), scheduled freighter deliveries and continued freighter conversions will expand available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTK) into 2026. At the same time, demand growth is expected to remain positive but more moderate than the rapid surge that tightened markets in 2024. Xeneta’s near-term commentary points to mid-single-digit


demand growth in 2025 and ongoing e-commerce expansion into 2026, while cautioning that capacity additions on core east-west and intra-Asia corridors will likely outpace demand growth and place downward pressure on both spot and contract rates during 2026. Concretely,


the arithmetic underpinning these


tactical window: shippers with flexible routing and blended contract coverage should be able to secure materially lower landed costs in 2026 compared with the peak-pricing regime of 2021–2024, while carriers with modern, fuel-efficient freighters and strong express networks are likelier to preserve margin resilience even as unit yields compress. Secondary impacts will include greater emphasis on contract length and coverage ratios — forwarders and shippers are already tendering longer tenors to stabilise unit costs — and heightened corridor differentiation, with e-commerce- dense lanes such as intra-Asia and Asia–North America retaining firmer utilisation than more commoditised flows. Specialist market analysts also caution that this global softening will not be smooth: volatility will remain elevated into the rebalancing phase, and localized, short-term spot spikes are possible where supply interruptions intersect with seasonal demand. In short, the consensus for 2026 is modest, positive volume


growth paired with capacity recovery that produces softer all-in airfreight rates — a buyer’s market for negotiators but a regime that rewards carriers who have modernised capacity and protected premium service segments.


forecasts is


straightforward and visible in recent industry figures: IATA reported that full-year demand (CTK) rose by 11.3 percent in 2024 even as ACTK expanded by 7.4 percent, which explains why yields were elevated last year; if demand growth moderates toward a mid- single-digit rate while ACTK keeps growing at a mid-single-digit pace, the cargo load factor will decline and spot indices will move back toward longer-run marginal cost levels. For procurement and commercial teams, that dynamic implies a


2031 — Structural growth driven by e-commerce, network densification and fleet expansion The 2031 airfreight outlook is materially constructive on a structural basis: medium- term trade


reorientation, continued digital


commerce penetration, and deliberate supply- chain diversification are projected to push global cargo traffic higher over the remainder of the decade. Boeing’s World Air Cargo Forecast (WACF) encapsulates the central view with an explicit


long-run numerical


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