AIR CARG O WEEK


MARKET FORECAST THE TAIL END


AIRFREIGHT’S CRYSTAL BALL BUNGLES


THE AIRFREIGHT INDUSTRY HAS A LONG HISTORY OF FORECASTS THAT DIDN’T COME TRUE. MANY CAME FROM CONSULTANTS, AIRLINES, AIRCRAFT MANUFACTURERS AND TRADE GROUPS. HERE ARE SOME NOTABLE CATEGORIES AND EXAMPLES OF PROJECTIONS THAT MISSED THE MARK


A


s the new millennium kicked off, there was great optimism going into the new century about what seemed a rosy future for airfreight. Looking back twenty-years,


out as expected. Firstly, there were overly optimistic growth forecasts, really


boom-year projections. in the early 2000s. Before 9/11 and the 2008 financial crisis, many industry forecasts projected long-term annual growth of 6–7 percent for global air cargo demand. In reality, long-term average growth between 2008–2020 was closer to 2–3


percent, with several negative-growth years. In the mid-2010s, some projections expected e-commerce to


it is


interesting to see how optimistic people in the industry looking into their future. Of course, not everything turned


push double-digit annual growth in airfreight indefinitely. The reality was that while e-commerce grew dramatically, airfreight capacity constraints and cost pressures kept growth more moderate, and some of the expected permanent demand shift didn’t materialise.


Aircraft that didn’t fly Two freighter aircraft projects that were once promoted as game- changers never took off from the ground. In the US, the Boeing 747-8F was expected to dominate freighter


fleets. Forecasts


around 2005–2010 expected the 747-8F to sell strongly and remain the backbone of global cargo fleets. Orders were far lower than projected, and production ended in


2022. Twin-engine aircraft and conversions dominated instead. Across the Atlantic, the Airbus A380F was expected to play a


major cargo role. In early 2000s projections, the A380F was expected to become a high-capacity freighter option. In the end, the programme was cancelled before deliveries; no operator ever received one. These putative plans coincided with predictions that belly cargo


would become obsolete in the new century. In the early 2010s, some analysts expected use of dedicated freighters to grow massively meaning belly cargo would decline due to fuel costs and tighter passenger demand. Of course, belly cargo remains essential. In fact, many airlines


rely heavily on it, and passenger widebodies (777, A350, A330neo) provide huge cargo capacity.


COVID-19 era projections that didn’t last More recently, within the last five years, during 2020–2021 some predicted that freighter demand would stay permanently at pandemic highs. Others argued that passenger traffic would take 5–10 years to recover, keeping belly capacity low. In fact, passenger traffic returned faster than expected; belly


capacity bounced back. Freighter yields dropped sharply post-2022 and several new freighter conversion programmes (e.g., A321P2F) faced softer demand than projected. At


the same time, automation and drone-cargo timelines


came from industry predictions between 2015–2020 that often suggested large-scale drone cargo operations by mid-2020s as fully automated cargo facilities became standard While automation is progressing, drones are still limited to niche


routes. Large-scale drone freight is not yet commercially viable, and fully autonomous cargo handling remains in pilot stages.


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