SUPPLEMENT


assumption,


forecasting average annual global air cargo traffic


growth of 4.0 percent from 2024 through 2043 - a mid-case that drives planning assumptions for fleet, hub investment and freighter conversion markets. The WACF also shows that express carriers are expected to outpace the aggregate industry growth rate (their


forecasted


pace is nearer 5.8 percent per annum), reflecting the sustained premiumisation of time-sensitive, e-commerce shipments and that dedicated freighter capacity will expand materially to support that demand profile. Boeing’s published freighter figures underline the scale of


capacity change: roughly 2,340 freighters were counted in 2023 and the forecast path projects approximately 3,900 freighters by 2043,


indicating substantial ongoing OEM production and


conversion activity to meet future needs. Applied to nearer horizons, the arithmetic is tangible: compounding


a 4.0 percent annual growth rate for seven full years from 2024 to 2031 produces a multiplier of about 1.316, which implies roughly 31.6 percent more cargo tonne-kilometres in 2031 than in 2024 when measured on a CTK basis under Boeing’s central case. Translating the published fleet trajectory into a mid-decade


milestone, the implied compound fleet growth between 2023 and 2043 averages roughly 2.59 percent per year; projecting that pace forward to 2031 yields an illustrative freighter fleet of about 2,870 main-deck aircraft, or approximately 22.7 percent more than the 2023 count — a practical signal to lessors, OEMs and converters about the size and timing of near-term investment demand. From a market-value standpoint, third-party commercial research


typically places the 2023 global air cargo market in the broad $150–190 billion range depending on definitional boundaries; when that top-line growth is combined with the Boeing CTK trajectory, the result is higher absolute cargo revenues over the next decade even if unit yields normalise. For network and fleet planners the 2031 implications are clear:


“Boeing’s published freighter figures underline the scale of capacity change.”


prioritise selective fleet renewal and conversion programmes, densify


high-growth e-commerce corridors and Southeast Asia), accelerate digital (notably investment to shorten


ground turnaround and increase terminal throughput, and retain commercial flexibility so that capacity commitments can be scaled with observed demand. Boeing’s central case offers a measured, numerically explicit horizon: about one-third more traffic by 2031 versus the mid-2020s, enlarged freighter capacity in the low-to- mid-twenties percent range versus 2023, and continued premium returns for express-heavy products - a structural growth story with discrete numerical targets for strategy and capital allocation.


South


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