NEWS BREXIT SPECIAL REPORT


ECONOMY: Growth will slow but leaving the EU could be ‘an opportunity’. Ian Taylor reports from the British Hospitality Association summit in London


BREXIT FALLOUT


Andrew Sentance: ‘The economy is


likely to be weaker’


Inbound tourism ‘will be a big winner from Brexit’


The UK economy will be weaker for the rest of this year and next after the vote to leave the EU.


That is the view of Andrew Sentance, PwC senior economic adviser and former member of the Bank of England monetary policy, who told the British Hospitality Association summit in London on Monday: “I don’t buy into the argument that this is a boost for the economy.” However, he said: “It’s important


to recognise the world goes on and we haven’t left the EU yet.” Sentance warned the economy


would slow but did not suggest it would fall into recession, saying: “The fundamentals of the UK economy are strong.


“One of the fundamentals has been our trading relations with Europe. That has been disrupted and we have yet to see how it plays out. [But] if the political uncertainty is resolved quickly and if we end up negotiating something that keeps us close to the single market, we can limit the long-term costs. We just have to wait and see. The more we can maintain close


“The negatives are the uncertainty and the knock to the UK’s image. The positive is a weaker pound”


relations [with the EU], the better for trade and travel.” He said: “The economy is likely


to be weaker than if there had been a Remain vote. We projected about 2% GDP growth this year and over the next few years if it was Remain. Growth now will be weaker in the second half of this year and 2017. We forecast average growth of 1%-1.5% over the next two to three years. “For tourism and hospitality


there are two negatives and one positive. The negatives are the uncertainty, and the knock the UK’s image will have taken in Europe. The positive is that we have a weaker pound. I don’t welcome it as an economist, but it has quite a bearing on discretionary travel when the UK is cheaper to visit.”


8 travelweekly.co.uk 30 June 2016


Culture secretary John Whittingdale told the summit that the vote to leave provides “a great opportunity”, and he promised industry leaders: “You’re going to have a voice.”


Whittingdale, who campaigned


to leave, said: “Britain can do better looking outward than inward to Europe while maintaining close relations with our European allies. This is a time of change but also of great opportunity. “The pound has fallen, which


makes visiting Britain more attractive. A lot of regulations from Europe have been sensible and we’ll keep those, but there are some we have never supported and we could now remove.” He acknowledged: “It’s a period of uncertainty [and] I understand the concerns about the process. It is going to take a bit of time.” But he told UK tourism leaders:


“You’re going to have a voice. In the next year or more, while we have these discussions, I want you to have the maximum opportunity to make clear your priorities and we’ll try to deliver those.”


Weaker pound is positive result for domestic sector


A senior industry figure welcomed the fall in the pound as a boost to domestic tourism. Nick Varney, chief executive


of attractions group Merlin Entertainments and chairman of the British Hospitality Association, told the BHA summit in London: “For me, this was always about the exchange rate of the pound against the euro. “We’ve seen the pound fall and within reason that is a good thing. I was incredulous at the arguments of the Remain camp that we had to have a strong pound.” He said a strong pound “is not good for British tourism”, adding: “While the pound is strong you have Britons going abroad in huge numbers. [Now] Britons will be encouraged to spend more in our country and overseas visitors will want to come.”


Page 1  |  Page 2  |  Page 3  |  Page 4  |  Page 5  |  Page 6  |  Page 7  |  Page 8  |  Page 9  |  Page 10  |  Page 11  |  Page 12  |  Page 13  |  Page 14  |  Page 15  |  Page 16  |  Page 17  |  Page 18  |  Page 19  |  Page 20  |  Page 21  |  Page 22  |  Page 23  |  Page 24  |  Page 25  |  Page 26  |  Page 27  |  Page 28  |  Page 29  |  Page 30  |  Page 31  |  Page 32  |  Page 33  |  Page 34  |  Page 35  |  Page 36  |  Page 37  |  Page 38  |  Page 39  |  Page 40  |  Page 41  |  Page 42  |  Page 43  |  Page 44  |  Page 45  |  Page 46  |  Page 47  |  Page 48  |  Page 49  |  Page 50  |  Page 51  |  Page 52  |  Page 53  |  Page 54  |  Page 55  |  Page 56  |  Page 57  |  Page 58  |  Page 59  |  Page 60  |  Page 61  |  Page 62  |  Page 63  |  Page 64  |  Page 65  |  Page 66  |  Page 67  |  Page 68  |  Page 69  |  Page 70  |  Page 71  |  Page 72  |  Page 73  |  Page 74  |  Page 75  |  Page 76