Arctic development scenario, human impact in 2050

I

Human impact High

High - medium Medium - low

II 2002

2.5 million semi-domesticated reindeer are herded in Eurasia over 4 million square kilometres4 of the population located in Russia13

. From 1970 to 1990

the population of semi-domesticated reindeer decreased by 50% across Russia. Herd numbers in Norway, Sweden, and Finland are increasing again, following two decades of growth between 1970 and 1990 and a period of decline between 1990 and 20004

approximately 700,0004 2050 development within the ranges of large herds6 , with two-thirds

Source: Modified from analysis published in GEO3 Global Environment Outlook (2002)

. The actual

physical loss of pasture land to development is not the main issue; it is abandonment by caribou and reindeer of areas surrounding developments that is of serious concern14-17

. .

Developments and human activity create “avoidance” zones for the animals, reducing the amount of land available for grazing and increasing competition for forage4

. The total Scandinavian population stands at .

Threats Caribou and reindeer require extensive grazing lands to forage. The loss of pastures and habitat fragmentation by industrial and recreational development is a serious and on-going threat, especially given the increasing interest in

52 PROTECTING ARCTIC BIODIVERSITY

Other activities can have additional impacts for caribou and wild/semi-domestic reindeer. Habitat fragmentation due to intensive forestry and mineral and hydrocarbon development provides easier access for hunters and predators. This contributes to declines in wild populations, as documented for wild reindeer in Finland and for the woodland caribou population in Ontario, Canada8,18

.