A4
Election 2010
Conservative groups figure efforts could pay well beyond November
BY AARON BLAKE When the conservative-leaning
American Future Fund an- nounced lastweek that it plans to spend $800,000 on ads targeting Rep. Bruce Braley, it caught elec- tionwatchers by surprise. After all, the Iowa Democrat
isn’t generally considered a top Republican target. The national parties haven’t bothered to spend moneyonhis race.Andpolls show other Democratic incumbents across the country leading by smaller margins, in races that mightmore easily be tilted to the GOP’s advantage. The American Future Fund
isn’t talking, but Iowa political strategists from both parties say they believe the group’s goal is clear:TheinvestmentagainstBra- ley has little to do with 2010 and everything to do with the future statewide campaign he seems likely to run. In the midterm elections, Re-
publicans and conservative-lean- ing independent groups have tar- geted at least 10 House incum- bents who either have expressed interest in running for higher of- fice or who are widely considered to be contenders downthe line. NationalRepublicans say there
is no concerted effort to target candidates because of future rac- es, but some said that weakening rising stars intheDemocraticPar- tyisawelcomebyproductofayear in which Republicans have ex- panded the playing field and are primed tomake significant gains. In Iowa and elsewhere, Repub-
lican operatives at the state level are salivating at the prospect of takingout thenextbig contenders for their Senate or governor’s seats. It’s little secret, for instance,
thatBraley has his eyes on a state- wide campaign — potentially a run at the seat of Sen.TomHarkin (D-Iowa) if the 70-year-old law- maker retires in2014. “That’s why you’re seeing out-
side groups target him,” said one GOPoperative inIowa,who spoke on the condition of anonymity in order to discuss the matter can- didly. “This guy’s for real, and there’s a real chance he could be thenext senator fromIowa.” Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-
Ariz.) is inasimilarposition.Sheis widely seen as a likely challenger toSen. JonKyl (R-Ariz.)next cycle,
DEVIN WAGNER/ASSOCIATED PRESS Republicans have run ads opposing Rep. StephanieHerseth Sandlin (D-S.D.), who faces a tough race.
gressionalCommitteehaspaidfor ads against Herseth Sandlin, Hill and Patrick Murphy, all of whom are thought to be particularly vul- nerable in the current environ- ment. The NRCC said this week it would also spendmoney inWalz’s district, andonWednesday it add- ed Braley’s opponent, former con- gressional aide Ben Lange, to its list of top-level recruits. Chris Murphy, much like Bra-
JOHN CROSS/ASSOCIATED PRESS
Rep. TimWalz (D-Minn.), seen with daughterHope on Election Day in 2008, is also on theGOP’s list of rising stars it’d like to defeat.
and she’s even more of a target right now than Braley, according toRepublicanstrategists. Brett Mecum, executive direc-
tor of theArizonaRepublicanPar- ty, said taking Giffords out would help the party down the line. “The state GOP is in a position right now to completely eliminate the entirety of the farm team for the Democrat Party in this state,” Mecumsaid. Targeting a rising star is noth-
ingnew—for either party. In 2006, SenateMajority Lead-
erHarryM.Reid (D-Nev.) recruit- eda former staffer tofaceRep. Jon Porter (R-Nev.) in the state’s com- petitive 3rd Congressional Dis- trict. Reidmade it known that he saw Porter as a threat to his own 2010 reelection bid andwanted to
takehimout early. Porter survived the challenge,
but lost two years later to Dina Titus, a state legislator who was also recruitedbyReid.The former congressman passed on a Senate runthis year. Other Democratic rising stars
being targeted by Republicans in- clude Reps. Christopher S. Mur- phy (Conn.), Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (S.D.), Ron Klein (Fla.), Patrick J. Murphy (Pa.), Heath Shuler (N.C.), Tim Walz (Minn.) and Martin Heinrich (N.M.). Re- publicans are also targetingmore established Democrats who have previously runfor statewide office and may do so again, including Reps. Baron P.Hill (Ind.) and Ben Chandler (Ky.). The National Republican Con-
ley, is a tough target who has his eyes onthe Senate—andRepubli- cans are watching closely. “Cer- tainly, when someone gets into their third term, it allows that person to broaden their reach po- litically,andConnecticut iscondu- cive to that,” Connecticut GOP ChairmanChrisHealy said. The Democratic incumbents,
lockedintheir ownreelectionbat- tles, aren’t eager to talk about future ones right now. Braley said he suspects one reason he is being targeted is that the group is based in his state. “I have no idea what their motivation is,” he said. “I’m just onthe receiving end of it.” American Future Fund has
spread$7millionaroundtoHouse races across the country—mostly in competitive districts Republi- canleaders consider top targets. National Republicans say their
goal iswinning races this year,not damaging potential rivals in fu- ture races. “The goal is to win as many seats as possible,” said Paul Lindsay, an NRCC spokesman. “But if defeating certain Demo- crats would stunt the growth of a rising star, thenso be it.”
blakea@washpost.com
EZ SU K
KLMNO Targeting Democrats’ rising stars
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 8, 2010
Democrats assert tea party advantage
Weak candidates, backlash against
the movement seen
BY ANNE E. KORNBLUT AND PHILIP RUCKER
Republicans have said all year
that the tea party movement was going to lead them to victory in November, but in the final weeks of the campaign it is suddenly the Democrats who are claiming a tea party advan- tage. Democrats were already feel-
ing fortunate to face what they consider to be weak tea party candidates in Nevada, Delaware and a handful of other races. But party officials said on Thursday that they are also seeing an anti-tea party bounce nation- wide, with the movement moti- vating disenchanted Democrat- ic voters who had threatened to stay home on Election Day. David Plouffe, the former
Obama campaign manager who is playing a key role as a party strategist this year, said there has been a shift in sentiment since Christine O’Donnell won the Republican Senate primary last month in Delaware. Plouffe said that O’Donnell —
who has drawn ridicule for her well-publicized views on sexual activity and for embellishing her resume — and other tea party favorites are having a “collateral impact” on Republi- can candidates across the coun- try. “I didn’t expect it to have a
national import,” Plouffe said. But, “largely because of Chris- tine O’Donnell and the in- creased focus some of you have put on these extreme candi- dates, it’s had an effect.” Mitch Stewart, executive di-
rector of Organizing for Ameri- ca, said in an interview that the tea party has been a “great motivator not only for our vol- unteers, but for Democrats in general.” Plouffe and Stewart said they
had seen an uptick in volunteer activity in recent weeks, along with an increase in donations and anecdotal evidence of vot- ers motivated by the other side. Republicans were quick to
dismiss the newfound Demo- cratic excitement over the tea party as wishful thinking.
“This is the classic, elitist
disdain for these new voters,” said Ed Gillespie, a former Re- publican Party chairman. “They’re a big factor and the reason that 4 million more peo- ple voted in Republican prima- ries this year than in Democrat- ic primaries. That energy is going to elect a lot of Republi- cans in November.” That’s a view shared by some
Democrats aswell, at leastwhen it comes to House races. “Is the tea party a plus or
minus for Republicans in 2010? It’s pretty clearly a plus,” said Bill Galston, a Clinton adminis- tration official who now works at the Brookings Institution. “It’s more helpful in a broader frame than a single state. Will the energy of the tea party movement, on balance, benefit Republicans in House races? Net, absolutely. I’m less sure that’s the case in the Senate.” It’s possible the tea party is
benefiting both sides. Themove- ment has unquestionably ener- gized Republicans, putting the party in position to reclaim the majority in Congress. But the movement has also
yielded some nominees who ap- pear easier for Democrats to beat. And it carries an image that Democrats say appears too extreme for moderate and inde- pendent voters, with candidates who have advocated views such as privatizing Social Security and cutting the minimum wage. Within the White House, the
tea party has been a subject of fascination and occasional glee, with leading strategists, such as David Axelrod, becoming stu- dents of the movement. After O’Donnell won Delaware, na- tives of the state, including Plouffe and White House com- munications director Dan Pfeif- fer, expressed renewed opti- mism that the Senate would remain in Democratic hands. At this point, White House
officials see the tea party as being an unmitigated asset in 2012, when the president will be on the ballot. “This is the absolute tip of the
iceberg,” Plouffe said. “If you’re amoderate Republican thinking about running for office in 2011 or 2012, you need to have your head examined. They’re not go- ing to do it, because this dynam- ic is only going to increase.”
kornbluta@washpost.com ruckerp@washpost.com
Campaigns find Facebook, texts and tweets are imperfect tools social media from A1
2010 candidates. “Campaigns this cycle are in this frenzy of numbers, numbers, numbers. But how do you effectively reach these people and activate them?” When Harris signed on as the
new-media adviser to Republi- can Robert F. McDonnell’s cam-
paign for Virginia governor last year, the candidate asked for all the Obama bells and whistles. Harris adopted a sophisticated text-messaging system that al- lowed the campaign to send quick news flashes to supporters. McDonnell spent $150,000 to
buy the very latest in texting technology. The campaign put its
SMS “short code” on T-shirts, online ads and rally placards. But by Election Day, the cam-
paign had collected only about 9,000 mobile numbers, com- pared with more than 250,000 plain old e-mail addresses. This year, Harris has discouraged his clients from investing in texting. “I don’t thinkmobile is there yet,”
Harris said. Apps for the iPhone are anoth-
er popular campaign toy. But they can run in the thousands of dollars to create and aside froma certain hipster quality don’t tend to reach many voters. And nei- ther textmessaging nor apps can be used for political fundraising, making them even less effective as campaign tools. Some candidates are clearly
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more agile than others in adopt- ing new ways of doing things. McDonnell struggledtomakeuse of the cell numbers he collected, but GOP candidate Scott Brown used text messages to deploy a guerrilla army in his winning campaign to succeed the late Massachusetts senator Edward M. Kennedy. Whenever Brown’s Democrat-
ic opponent,Martha Coakley, ap- peared on a talk-radio show, the Brown campaign would text the cellphones of some 7,000 sup- porters, asking them to light up the phone lines with critical questions. Rob Willington, Brown’s new-
media strategist, was inspired by the text message Obama sent to supporters announcing Joseph R. Biden Jr. as his running mate. But Willington took the idea a step further, using the text mes-
sage as a real-time call to action. “What I love is, creativity can
make up for the lack of bucks,” Willington said. “Because of the technology, if you have an inter- esting candidate with an inter- esting message, that can go viral and be worth hundreds of thou- sands of dollars. That was never possible. Real, raw talent has the ability to break through all the noise out there.” Similarly, the Democratic Na-
tional Committee has created a new iPhone mapping app for campaign workers to use while canvassing neighborhoods on be- half of candidates. The app im- proves their chances of finding a receptive audience by pointing themto the homes of peoplewho voted for Obama. It is widely viewed as one of themost innova- tive tools of the 2010 campaign. One of the most widely copied
campaign innovations from2008 isn’t very techie at all: It’s the home phone bank, which saves campaigns money on office rent and telephone bills by having volunteers make recruiting calls fromtheir own houses. Tea party groups have been especially ef- fective at using the technique, recruiting activists tomake cam- paign calls on behalf of tea party candidates in districts thousands
of miles away from where they live. The one online tool that seems
to have lost a lot of its appeal to voters is the candidate’sWeb site. Every office seeker has one, but they tend toward the dull and dutiful and inspire few repeat visitors. “Nobody is going to a politi-
cian’s Web site every day,” said Wesley Donehue, a GOP consul- tant in South Carolina whose clients include Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) andwhose sharplyword- ed Twitter posts have helped him achieve celebrity among tea par- ty activists. Some politicians might still be struggling to figure out how to use the new tools, Donehue said, but “if the politi- cian is where the people are, social networks are going to be- come the new hub of campaign activity.” David All, a Capitol Hill vet-
eran and GOP new-media strate- gist, agrees. “The whole model is about to
shift on its head,” said All, who organized his industry’s first bi- partisan conference last week in Washington. “The only thing that is going to slow that down is the old guard, trying to hold on to the old-school ways.”
murrays@washpost.com
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torial Committee dropped the spot, filmed in Philadelphia, from its YouTube channel. Republicans also expect it to be
withdrawn from TV, where it has been in heavy rotation sinceTues- day, according to a party official
who spoke on the condition of anonymity. The ad showed men in flannel
shirts and baseball caps worrying that Gov. Joe Manchin III (D) would side withPresidentObama if elected to the Senate—a theme the GOP has been hammering in the battle to replace the late sena- tor Robert C. Byrd (D). The casting call for actors,
which Democrats reported to Po- litico, listed clothing options that included trucker or John Deere hats that are “not brand new, preferably beat up,” as well as jeans, down-filled vests and
“Dickie’s type jacket with t-shirt underneath.” “We are going for a ‘Hicky’ Blue
Collar look,” it said. “These char- acters are from West Virginia so think coal miner/trucker looks.” TheNRSCblamed the wording
on Philadelphia-based Kathy Wickline Casting, which did not immediately respond to a request for comment. “No one at the NRSC, or associ-
ated with theNRSC,hadanything to do with the language used in this casting call,” spokesman Bri- anWalsh said.
—Associated Press
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