The availability of sea ice as routes for transportation These consequences will have extended effects outside
and migration is already reduced in many areas of the the Arctic region, as will the possible impacts of sea-ice
Arctic region (Figure 5.17), and evidence of increasingly reduction on exploration and production of oil and gas.
unpredictable sea ice and weather conditions highlights Simultaneously, increased activity will contribute to an
that hunters are already confronted with increased risks increased risk of environmental damage, e.g. through
and hazard. In addition to requiring more fuel to reach oil spills and other industrial accidents
91
. If the projected
geographically dispersed prey, adaptation among hunt- changes in climate and Arctic economic activities occur,
ers to climate change may require improved access to they will present new challenges for trans-national coop-
advanced technology, larger boats and new navigational eration and jurisdiction, for example with regard to the
aids such as Global Positioning Systems (GPS). These management of fisheries, pollution, and the establish-
adaptations will require substantial resources and in- ment of a common policy for emergency response.
vestments on the part of individual hunters and com-
munities, something that may not be possible given the Arctic and Antarctic fisheries
lack of economic investment and opportunities for the
inhabitants of these areas at present. A retreat in sea ice accompanied by changes in ocean
temperatures is likely to affect the distribution of fish
Although Arctic societies have proven to be dynam- stocks in both the Arctic and the Antarctic regions. In ar-
ic and capable of confronting past changes, climate eas of sea-ice retreat, light penetration in the upper ocean
change and its associated effects on sea ice and hu- will increase, enhance phytoplankton blooms, and bring
man activities present new challenges to the adaptive about changes in marine food webs
31
. Some species are
capacity of Arctic communities. The net effects of sea expected to become more productive with warmer sea-
ice changes on communities in the Arctic are difficult water temperatures, while others might suffer a loss in
to assess. While some changes might be for the better, production through, for example, improved conditions
others might have profound negative effects. To get a for competing species or changes in ocean currents re-
more thorough understanding of the actual impacts of sulting in poorer nutrient conditions. Since migratory
changing sea ice conditions and their consequences for patterns as well as competition between species might
influenced communities, further studies where scien- change, it is likely that positive effects on fishing and fish
tists and local stakeholders interact to produce knowl- recruitment in some areas will occur along with negative
edge that is both scientifically substantial and locally impacts in the same or additional areas
104
.
valuable are required.
For Arctic nations, as well as for many nations outside the
Sea ice changes and economic activities Arctic region, Arctic marine fishing is an important food
and income source. In terms of scale and income, the catch
Reductions in sea-ice thickness and coverage in the Arctic is also an important export commodity and constitutes a
will have large potential impacts on the economic activi- large share of the economy of some parts of the Arctic. In
ties in the region. Development of the offshore continen- 2002 the total catch of wild fish in the Arctic amounted to
tal shelves and greater use of coastal shipping routes are 7.26 million tonnes, which corresponds to around 10% of
likely to have significant social, political and economic the world catch of fish
104
. Although access to fish grounds
consequences for all residents of Arctic coastal areas
31
. might generally increase, the complexity of changes in
CHAPTER 5 ICE IN THE SEA 89