Regional policy issues and increase access to commercially significant depos-
its of oil and gas located in shallow waters of the Arctic
It is natural to turn first to the polar regions in thinking littorals. If current forecasts regarding the navigability
about regional policy issues. But the impacts of changes of Arctic waters (such as ice-free navigation along the
in ice and snow are not limited to the high latitudes. Northern Sea Route for up to 120 days per year during
In mountainous areas where glaciers are prominent fea- this century) hold, incentives to ship a variety of goods
tures of the landscape and the annual snow pack is an – especially between Europe and the Far East – will grow
essential source of fresh water, changes in ice and snow rapidly in the coming decades. The combination of large
will produce substantial impacts on human well-being. recoverable reserves of oil and gas (25 per cent or more
In this discussion of regional policy issues, we look at of the Earth’s untapped reserves according to the US
selected issues in three regions: the Arctic, the Antarc- Geological Survey) and the relative security of the Arctic
tic, and the Himalayas. in geopolitical terms can be expected to make the extrac-
tion of hydrocarbons in this area irresistibly attractive.
Arctic: jurisdiction, oil, and minerals
These developments will give rise to two sets of policy
In the Far North, the key policy issues centre on the issues that cannot be avoided even in the short run. The
prospects that retreating sea ice will open up the North- first set concerns jurisdiction. Already, Canada and Rus-
east and Northwest Passages for commercial shipping sia are taking steps to assert extended Exclusive Eco-
Arctic sea ice.
Photo: Andrea Taurisano,
Norwegian Polar Institute
220 GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR ICE AND SNOW