Land area (km
2
) Population (millions) GDP (US$ billion)
0 200 400 600 800 0 25 50 75 100 0 100 200 300 400
Africa
Australia
Europe
Latin America
North America
Asia
Global (total) 2 223 km
2
145 millions US$944 billion
Figure 6C.11: Indicative estimates of regional and global ex-
posure to a uniform 1 m rise in sea level based on today’s popu-
Population flooded
lation and economy.
(millions/year)
1 000
Source: Based on Anthoff and others 2006
1
A one-metre rise in sea level would potentially affect more
100
land, people, and value of economic activity in Asia than in any
other continent.
Photo: Veer.com 10
1
Figure 6C.12: Estimates of people flooded in coastal areas in
the 2080s as a result of sea-level rise and for given socio-eco-
0.1
nomic scenarios and protection responses. The lines represent
0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1.0
IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) based on
different world views. The differences in impacts between the
Sea-level rise (m)
SRES scenarios for the same amount of sea-level rise and pro- Degree of protection
tection response reflect differences in exposure (population)
Scenario constant evolving enhanced
and ability to adapt (wealth). The solid lines represent a level
A1/B1: population 8 billion,
highest GDP/capita
of ‘constant’ (no additional) protection response. The dashed
A2: population 14 billion,
and dotted lines represent the addition of protection response
lowest GDP/capita
to different degrees.
B2: population 10 billion,
Source: Based on Nicholls and Lowe 2006
69
; Nicholls and Tol 2006
47
intermediate GDP/capita
CHAPTER 6C ICE AND SEA-LEVEL CHANGE 171