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CAR’s trend-line forecast. AR’s trend-line forecast.


is looking for ways to reduce its oil dependency. Environmental concerns now outweigh worries over oil resource depletion. Alternative powertrain vehicles may eventually replace internal combustion engine vehicles in many global markets.


US Auto Industry Considerations


The US automotive industry is operating in unprec- edented times. The following represent some of the key factors to watch.


Fuel Economy / CO2 and Electrifi cation


While the US auto industry awaits the outcome of the mid-term review, global CO2 regulations will continue to drive


increasingly challenging standards. Overall, manufacturers expect compliance costs to be higher and effi ciencies to be lower than regulators estimate. A difference in expectations for effi ciency gains leads to an uncertain “electrifi cation tipping point,” where US regulators’ expectations for


Depending on market


position, customer expectations, and product mix, some automakers will bear a much greater implementation burden than others.


Further, greater fuel economy and lower emissions are not


merely cost and effi ciency problems; they are also a pathway problem. Each manufacturer is pursuing many technology


effi ciency far exceed what industry fi nds to be required to meet standards. Such a shift in the need for electrifi cation greatly alters the cost equation—and is far beyond what the current consumer market has shown willingness to accept. This electrifi cation tipping point will be a critical guidepost in understanding the future market.


13 — Motorized Vehicle Manufacturing 2017


Image courtesy CAR


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