overview


production to expand without investment in new plants or new assembly lines.


The White House wants to bring back US automotive manufacturing jobs—in part by renegotiating NAFTA and introducing corporate tax reform that includes a Border Adjustment Tax (BAT). Several automakers—including FCA, Ford, General Motors, Nissan, and Toyota—have recently announced job increases and plant upgrades in the United States. However, none has yet committed to a new US assembly plant. Given the 2009 market crash, automakers’ caution in expanding capacity at what may be the top of the market is understandable.


The US light vehicle market is highly cyclical; since the 1970s, the market has experienced four major cycles. Each cycle is unique in terms of economic and market conditions, but the troughs have one thing in common: the coincidence of high oil prices. Oil prices, however, do not fully explain the sales slumps, and do not necessarily predict US sales downturns. For example, the most recent oil price hike was in 2011; gasoline prices went from less than $3 per gallon to $4 within a year, but vehicle sales continued to grow coming out of the recession.


Looking beyond 2017, government forecasts show oil


prices will remain at low levels for several reasons: 1. The United States is now a crude oil net exporter. The current political environment incentivizes greater domestic oil and natural gas production by relaxing federal and environmental regulations.


2. OPEC’s abilities to infl uence world oil prices is diminishing. North America’s oil production will soon be suffi cient to supply its own demand. China, which is the second largest oil consumer, has increased its oil imports from Russia—which replaced Saudi Arabia as China’s top crude oil supplier in 2016.


3. China is becoming the largest oil consuming country in the world, but per capita oil consumption remains much lower than in the United States. China is also promoting and utilizing alternative energy sources in the automobile industry with a goal not of reducing oil consumption, but rather reducing air pollution. China’s per capita oil consumption may never reach US levels.


4. Finally, environmental awareness and energy effi - ciency is a global movement—even Saudi Arabia


CAR forecasts North American production t


AR forecasts North American production to riise


se.


12 — Motorized Vehicle Manufacturing 2017


Image courtesy CAR


Page 1  |  Page 2  |  Page 3  |  Page 4  |  Page 5  |  Page 6  |  Page 7  |  Page 8  |  Page 9  |  Page 10  |  Page 11  |  Page 12  |  Page 13  |  Page 14  |  Page 15  |  Page 16  |  Page 17  |  Page 18  |  Page 19  |  Page 20  |  Page 21  |  Page 22  |  Page 23  |  Page 24  |  Page 25  |  Page 26  |  Page 27  |  Page 28  |  Page 29  |  Page 30  |  Page 31  |  Page 32  |  Page 33  |  Page 34  |  Page 35  |  Page 36  |  Page 37  |  Page 38  |  Page 39  |  Page 40  |  Page 41  |  Page 42  |  Page 43  |  Page 44  |  Page 45  |  Page 46  |  Page 47  |  Page 48  |  Page 49  |  Page 50  |  Page 51  |  Page 52  |  Page 53  |  Page 54  |  Page 55  |  Page 56  |  Page 57  |  Page 58  |  Page 59  |  Page 60  |  Page 61  |  Page 62  |  Page 63  |  Page 64  |  Page 65  |  Page 66  |  Page 67  |  Page 68  |  Page 69  |  Page 70  |  Page 71  |  Page 72  |  Page 73  |  Page 74  |  Page 75  |  Page 76  |  Page 77  |  Page 78  |  Page 79  |  Page 80  |  Page 81  |  Page 82  |  Page 83  |  Page 84  |  Page 85  |  Page 86  |  Page 87  |  Page 88  |  Page 89  |  Page 90  |  Page 91  |  Page 92  |  Page 93  |  Page 94  |  Page 95  |  Page 96  |  Page 97  |  Page 98  |  Page 99  |  Page 100  |  Page 101  |  Page 102  |  Page 103  |  Page 104  |  Page 105  |  Page 106  |  Page 107  |  Page 108  |  Page 109  |  Page 110  |  Page 111  |  Page 112  |  Page 113  |  Page 114  |  Page 115  |  Page 116  |  Page 117  |  Page 118  |  Page 119  |  Page 120  |  Page 121  |  Page 122  |  Page 123  |  Page 124  |  Page 125  |  Page 126  |  Page 127  |  Page 128  |  Page 129  |  Page 130  |  Page 131  |  Page 132  |  Page 133  |  Page 134  |  Page 135  |  Page 136  |  Page 137  |  Page 138  |  Page 139  |  Page 140  |  Page 141  |  Page 142  |  Page 143  |  Page 144  |  Page 145  |  Page 146  |  Page 147  |  Page 148  |  Page 149  |  Page 150  |  Page 151  |  Page 152  |  Page 153  |  Page 154  |  Page 155  |  Page 156  |  Page 157  |  Page 158  |  Page 159  |  Page 160  |  Page 161  |  Page 162  |  Page 163  |  Page 164  |  Page 165  |  Page 166  |  Page 167  |  Page 168  |  Page 169  |  Page 170  |  Page 171  |  Page 172  |  Page 173  |  Page 174  |  Page 175  |  Page 176