yield is at a near record level due to above-average seasonal rainfall, especially during January and February when the crop was in the critical pollination and grain filling stages. Estimated end-of-season maize inventories worldwide have been
increased by just under 2.3 million tonnes to just short of 223 million tonnes. Relative to consumption, this represents a ratio of 79 Days Consumption Equivalent (DCE), identical to that of the two preceding years and the highest for fifteen years. NASS has already looked at US wheat and maize planting
prospects in 2017-18 in preparation for its next Production, Supply and Distribution report, due out early in May. Maize growers intend to plant 36.4 million hectares in 2017, down 4 per cent from last year, but still 2 per cent higher than in 2015. Expected returns for maize are anticipated to be lower compared with other crops in 2017. In addition, the area planted to wheat for 2017 is estimated at 18.6 million hectares, down 8 per cent from 2016. USDA has also updated its projection of soybean production in
2016-17 with the proviso that its analysis will also shift to 2017-18 in its next, May analysis. USDA’s April projection increases global soybean production by
5.18 million tonnes to just under 346 million tonnes, an increase of 5.18 million tonnes or 1.5 per cent. The action is all in South America. USDA has increased its estimate of Brazilian soybean production by 3 million tonnes or 2.8 per cent to 111 million tonnes, a record and increasingly hot on the heels of the US, the world’s largest soybean producer, where the current soybean projection for 2016-17 remains unchanged at 117.21 million tonnes. Brazil’s harvested area is estimated at 34 million hectares, up 100,000 hectares from last month, and up 700,000 hectares from last year. Brazilian soybean yield is estimated at a record 3.26 tonnes per hectare, up 2 per cent from last month and up 12 per cent compared with the previous year. Nationally, two-thirds of the Brazilian soybean crop has been harvested. Argentine soybean production has also been increased albeit by a modest half a million tonnes or 0.9 per cent to 56 million tonnes.
However, in proportionate terms, it is established soybean producer Paraguay that heads the list with a 930,000 tonne increase to 10.1 million tonnes, equivalent to an increase of 10.1% compared to USDA’s March projection. USDA’s latest assessment of end-of-season soybean stocks
suggested that the 2016-17 run will see world stocks of 87.41 million tonnes, up by 4.59 million tonnes or 5.5 per cent on their previous estimate. In terms of the proportion of the estimated crush for 2016-17, end of season soybean stocks amount to 30 per cent, up from 28 per cent in USDA’s March assessment. This would appear to point to a softer market as the forecasting period moves into the 2017-18 run. In this connection, NASS has also been taking a preliminary look at US soybean prospects for soybeans in 2017-18. According to the Prospective Plantings report released by NASS,
producers surveyed across the United States intend to plant an estimated 89.5 million acres of soybeans in 2017, up 7 per cent from last year and representing a record high, according to the report. If this was realised, soybean plantings will exceed the previous record of 83.4 million acres planted in the United States last year. According to the report, planted acreage intentions for soybeans
are up or unchanged in twenty-seven out of the thirty-one estimating states with the largest increase expected in Kansas with 5 million acres, an increase of 950,000 acres from 2016. If the report’s findings were realised, the planted area of soybeans in twelve other states will be the largest on record.
FORMER FOODSTUFFS Not enough attention has been paid by commentators on the feed industry scene, including this column, to the role played in feed manufacture by foodstuffs originally intended for human consumption but eventually destined to end up as a raw material for incorporation in animal feeds. There was an interesting presentation regarding the use of such foodstuffs organised by the Advisory Committee on Animal Feeds (ACAF), the body dealing with feed in the context of
PAGE 12 MAY/JUNE 2017 FEED COMPOUNDER
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