The Bank’s Commercial Banking and Wholesale Banking businesses use credit risk models and policies to establish borrower and facility risk ratings, quantify and monitor the level of risk, and facilitate its management. The businesses also use risk ratings to determine the amount of credit exposure it is willing to extend to a particular borrower. Management processes are used to monitor country, industry, and borrower or counterparty risk ratings, which include daily, monthly, quarterly, and annual review requirements for credit exposures. The key parameters used in the Bank’s credit risk models are monitored on an ongoing basis.
Unanticipated economic or political changes in a foreign country could affect cross-border payments for goods and services, loans, dividends, and trade-related finance, as well as repatriation of the Bank’s capital in that country. The Bank currently has credit exposure in a number of countries, with the majority of the exposure in North America. The Bank measures country risk using approved risk rating models and qualitative factors that are also used to establish country exposure limits covering all aspects of credit exposure across all businesses. Country risk ratings are managed on an ongoing basis and are subject to a detailed review at least annually. As part of the Bank’s credit risk strategy, the Bank sets limits on the amount of credit it is prepared to extend to specific industry sectors. The Bank monitors its concentration to any given industry to ensure that the loan portfolio is diversified. The Bank manages its risk using limits based on an internal risk rating score that combines TD’s industry risk rating model and industry analysis, and regularly reviews industry risk ratings to ensure that those ratings properly reflect the risk of the industry. The Bank assigns a maximum exposure limit or a concentration limit to each major industry segment which is a percentage of its total wholesale and commercial private sector exposure. The Bank may also set limits on the amount of credit it is prepared to extend to a particular entity or group of entities, also referred to as “entity risk”. All entity risk is approved by the appropriate decision-making authority using limits based on the entity’s borrower risk rating (BRR) and, for certain portfolios, the risk rating of the industry in which the entity operates. This exposure is monitored on a regular basis.
The Bank may also use credit derivatives to mitigate borrower-specific exposure as part of its portfolio risk management techniques.
The Basel Framework
The objective of the Basel Framework is to improve the consistency of capital requirements internationally and make required regulatory capital more risk-sensitive. The Basel Framework sets out several options which represent increasingly more risk-sensitive approaches for calculating credit, market, and operational RWA.
Credit Risk and the Basel Framework
The Bank received approval from OSFI to use the Basel AIRB Approach for credit risk, effective November 1, 2007. The Bank uses the AIRB Approach for all material portfolios, except in the following areas: • TD has approved exemptions to use the Standardized Approach for some small credit exposures in North America. Risk Management reconfirms annually that this approach remains appropriate.
• Effective the third quarter of 2016, OSFI approved the Bank to calculate the majority of the retail portfolio credit RWA in the U.S. Retail segment using the AIRB Approach. The non-retail portfolio in the U.S. retail segment continues to use the Standardized approach subject to regulatory approval to transition to the AIRB Approach.
To continue to qualify using the AIRB Approach for credit risk, the Bank must meet the ongoing conditions and requirements established by OSFI and the Basel Framework. The Bank regularly assesses its compliance with these requirements.
Credit Risk Exposures Subject to the AIRB Approach Banks that adopt the AIRB Approach to credit risk must report credit risk exposures by counterparty type, each having different underlying risk characteristics. These counterparty types may differ from the presentation in the Bank’s Consolidated Financial Statements. The Bank’s credit risk exposures are divided into two main portfolios, retail and non-retail.
Risk Parameters
Under the AIRB Approach, credit risk is measured using the following risk parameters: • PD – the likelihood that the borrower will not be able to meet its scheduled repayments within a one year time horizon.
• LGD – the amount of loss the Bank would likely incur when a borrower defaults on a loan, which is expressed as a percentage of EAD. • EAD – the total amount the Bank is exposed to at the time of default.
By applying these risk parameters, TD can measure and monitor its credit risk to ensure it remains within pre-determined thresholds. Retail Exposures
In the retail portfolio, including individuals and small businesses, the Bank manages exposures on a pooled basis, using predictive credit scoring techniques. There are three sub-types of retail exposures: residential secured (for example, individual mortgages and home equity lines of credit), qualifying revolving retail (for example, individual credit cards, unsecured lines of credit, and overdraft protection products), and other retail (for example, personal loans, including secured automobile loans, student lines of credit, and small business banking credit products). The Bank calculates RWA for its retail exposures using the AIRB Approach. All retail PD, LGD, and EAD parameter models are based exclusively on the internal default and loss performance history for each of the three retail exposure sub-types.
Account-level PD, LGD, and EAD models are built for each product portfolio and calibrated based on the observed account-level default and loss performance for the portfolio.
Consistent with the AIRB Approach, the Bank defines default for exposures as delinquency of 90 days or more for all retail credit portfolios. LGD estimates used in the RWA calculations reflect economic losses, such as, direct and indirect costs as well as any appropriate discount to account for time between default and ultimate recovery. EAD estimates reflect the historically observed utilization of undrawn credit limit prior to default. PD, LGD and EAD models are calibrated using logistic and linear regression techniques. Predictive attributes in the models may include account attributes, such as loan size, interest rate, and collateral, where applicable; an account’s previous history and current status; an account’s age on books; a customer’s credit bureau attributes; and a customer’s other holdings with the Bank. For secured products such as residential mortgages, property characteristics, loan-to-value ratios, and a customer’s equity in the property, play a significant role in PD as well as in LGD models. All risk parameter estimates are updated on a quarterly basis based on the refreshed model inputs. Parameter estimation is fully automated based on approved formulas and is not subject to manual overrides. Exposures are then assigned to one of nine pre-defined PD segments based on their estimated long-run average one-year PD.
The risk discriminative and predictive power of the Bank’s retail credit models is assessed against the most recently available one-year default and loss performance on a quarterly basis. All models are also subject to a comprehensive independent validation prior to implementation and on an annual basis as outlined in the “Model Risk Management” section of this disclosure.
Long-run PD estimates are generated by including key economic indicators, such as interest rates and unemployment rates, and using their long-run average over the credit cycle to estimate PD. LGD estimates are required to reflect a downturn scenario. Downturn LGD estimates are generated by using macroeconomic inputs, such as changes in housing prices and unemployment rates expected in an appropriately severe downturn scenario.
78 TD BANK GROUP ANNUAL REPORT 2016 MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS
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